Sports Analysis

11/24/2009

A Look At Mouse Davis’ Run and Shoot Offense Playbook from the 1984 Houston Gamblers

Filed under: Pro Football — David Hunter @ 4:21 PM
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In looking over Mouse Davis’ original Run and Shoot Playbook from his tenure as the 1984 Houston Gamblers head coach, here are some tips and notes I came upon.

General Notes
- Always draw up any pass package against 3 deep coverage (Cover 4 look with 1 deep safety).
- The snap is always taken under center, as opposed to out of the shotgun.
- A lot of motion is used to help the QB and receivers determine whether the coverage look is man or zone based. Note that with recent developments/complexities in defenses, may not be as advantageous.

Blocking Terminology
Ace – Double Team block by G and C on man (NT or DT) lined up over C.
Cal – C blocks LB.
Cob – G pulls back to block NT/DT lined up over C. C then pulls around G and blocks LB.
Combo – OT and W or Y receiver wall off DE and LB.
Deuce – Double Team block by G and T on man (DT or MLB/ILB) lined up over G.
Dog – Used in Short Yardage/Goal Line situations. Double Team block by C and G play is aimed towards on man (DT/MLB/ILB) lined up over G.
Dot – Used in Short Yardage/Goal Line situations. Double Team block by C and G play is not aimed towards on man (DT/ILB) lined up over G.
Dudad – Combo Block by G and T on a DE/DT and a LB.
Drive – A bull rush block man on man aiming to drive through the opponent’s numbers. Key block technique in the running game.
Four – Double Team block by the TE and W receiver.
Gee – Combo Block by TE, T, and G. TE and T block against the grain (i.e. block left when play goes right and vice versa) and G pulls out to take on the SLB.
Help – Occurs in pass situations. RB has to block outside while the OL blocks the gaps.
Slip – General term for Combo block by 2 blockers on 1 DL and 1 LB.
Solid – General term for man on man blocking.
Trey – Double Team block by T and TE on man (DE/OLB) over the T.

Major Coverages Faced
Cover 4 Invert: Generally out of a dime (5 DB) package with only 1 safety back deep. The 5th and 6th DB play along the linebackers line.
Cover 4 Buzz: Generally out of a 4-3 package with only 1 safety back deep. The SS takes over for a LB and plays at essentially what looks like a 4-4-3 defense.
Cover 4 Cleo: Generally out of a 4-3 package with both the FS and SS playing deep. The SCB plays tighter on the WR while the WCB plays shallower.
Cover 4 Across: Generally out of a 3-4 package with both the FS and SS playing deep. Utilized against streak routes as all 4 DB drop back.
Cover 4 2: Generally out of a 4-3 package with both the FS and SS playing deep. Both CB play tight up on their respective WR.
Cover 4 5: Similar to the 4 2, however, the big difference is that the WLB and SLB play tight up on the W and Y receivers.
Cover 4 1: Generally out of a 3-4 package with a FS playing deep. LILB has option of blitz/zone drop while SOLB blitzes. SS plays up slightly along ILB lines.

Blitz Terms
Cat – MLB and WLB blitz at the same time.
Smack – MLB and SLB blitz at the same time.

WR Routes
vs. Bump & Run and Cleo Looks – All out routes turn into fades
vs. Bump & Run and Cleo Looks – All post routes turn into out routes
vs. Man Coverage – All curl and in routes turn into out routes

Route 1 – Slant (Break is made at 6 yards)
Route 2 – Quick Out (Break is made at 8 yards)
Route 3 – Hitch (Break back is made at 9 yards)
Route 4 – Pressure Out (Break is made at 14 yards)
Route 5 – Slide (Break is made at 7 yards)
Route 6 – Choice Out (Break is made at 17 yards)
Route 7 – Choice Post (Break is made at 13 yards)
Route 8 – Post (Break is made at 20 yards)
Route 9 – Corner (Break back from Route 8 is made at 23 yards)
Route 10 – Go and Fade
Route 11 – Cross and Square In (Break from Route 5 is made at 27 yards)
Route 12 – Switch (Break from Route 5 is made at 28 yards)

W and Y Receiver Routes
Route 1 – Flat
Route 2 – Switch (Continues off Route 1)
Route 3 – Streak
Route 4 – Flag (Continues off Route 1 and Break is made at 16 yards)
Route 5 – Post (Continues off Route 3 and Break is made at 16 yards)
Route 6 – Drag/Hot (Break made at 4 yards)

S Back Routes
Route 1 – Screen
Route 2 – Swing
Route 3 – Flat (Continues from Route 1)
Route 4 – Delay (Block then move up to inside zone area)
Route 5 – Drag
Route 6 – Hook (Continues from Route 1. Break back made at 6 yards from line of scrimmage)
Route 7 – Rim (Continues from Route 1. Also known as a wheel route)

Handling Safety Blitz
On 60 and 90 series pass plays, the X and Z receivers must find the safety on their side. The “sight adjust” will be a slant if the corner is playing off or a fade if the corner is playing bump and run. No “sight adjust” if the W or Y receiver is on a flat route towards the side of the pattern.

Uncovered Receiver Signals
A hot call by the receiver with the QB recognizing visually and making the throw or the receiver will grab his facemask with the QB recognizing visually and making the throw.

S Back’s Role if QB Scrambles. X and Z’s routes if QB Scrambles.
S Back is to move in the direction that the QB is scrambling, right or left.

If the QB is scrambling towards, the X/Z receiver changes most routes to a Go/Fade route. An X/Z receiver on a Choice Post, Corner, Cross, Switch route will instead change to a Hook route. If the QB is scrambling away, the X/Z receiver changes all routes to a Drag route.

Basic Rules for all Receivers
Release – Get off the line quickly and try to avoid contact as much as possible. Any physical contact can disrupt the route.
Hot Call – Receiver will make the call in blitz situations by waving hand and screaming “Hot!”
Hook Up Signal – If the opposing DB is giving the short plays or receiver can’t beat DB deep, receiver can throw an arm up and change a Go/Fade into a Hook route.
Perfect Position – When possible, cut back “across” the DB’s face (i.e. force the DB to roll their shoulders and turn). If running a Go/Fade and the DB is in perfect coverage, the receiver has the option of cutting back towards an open area.

Additional Receiver Notes
1: Always read the alignment of CB, S, and LB before the snap. Look for a tip off to what coverage you’re facing.
2: Find out how the DB covers you in relation to the sideline and adapt to it or force the DB to alter it.
3: Always know your position relative to the sideline/goal line/end zone but focus on the catch first.
4: Study the tendencies of each DB and Secondary. Do they play loose or bump & run? Do they gamble a lot? Do they line up inside or outside of your body? How fast are they and know when they start to slow down on Go/Fade routes.
5: Run every single play at absolute full speed. Always expect the QB to throw the ball in your direction.
6: Vary the release you get off the line of scrimmage when going outside, straight ahead, or inside.
7: Change of Direction during the “weave” (i.e. in between the release and break of your route) should be made in a N/S direction and never E/W unless you’re breaking.
8: Vs. Man Coverage fake the man and not the area. Get as close as possible and force the DB to move/react.
9: Vs. Zone Coverage think position and try to find an open area rather than faking the DB.
10: Never shorten the designated depth of the route on a break.
11: When you’ve beaten a DB, be aware of holding/tackling. Separation is imperative!
12: Try to catch the ball in stride and run through the ball.
13: Attack the ball and prepare yourself for a hit whenever the ball is caught.

Play Designs
50 Pass Series – QB has a 2 or 3 step drop. Quick pass game. S Back reads LB on call side of play. If LB comes, block him. If LB drops back, run designed route. On even numbered plays, the Y receiver has a free release and W receiver has a check (block first) release. On odd numbered plays, the Y receiver has a check release and W receiver has a free release.
60 Pass Series – QB will roll out towards the right side.
460 and 461 Pass Series – Designed SBack or W/Y receiver screen plays. QB is to sell play as if a 60/61 pass play.
900 Pass Series – What is termed as pick plays. Involves the W/Y receiver forcing the MLB/ILB to set a “pick” against own SLB/SOLB.
84-85 Run Series – SBack goes on a designed inside dive.
88-89 Run Series – SBack goes on a designed outside stretch play.
80-81 Run Series – SBack goes on a designed draw play. QB is to sell play as if 60/61 pass play.
74-75 Run Series – SBack goes on a designed counter trey play. Aimed inside tackle.
18-19 Run Series – Speed Option plays with QB pitching to SBack.

The Choice (Option) Route
Usually a route concept assigned to a single receiver in a given play. It generally offers the receiver the option of 2 different routes to take, depending on the play of the opposing DB.

The Switch Route
Usually a route concept assigned to two receivers who “cross” each other forcing the opposing DB to catch up or switch coverage designation.

11/19/2009

The Pass vs. The Run and Wins In the NFL

Filed under: Pro Football — David Hunter @ 3:54 PM
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A thought popped into my head when thinking about the fact that teams winning a ballgame will “run out” the clock with a heavy run game because they want to ensure the victory. I noticed the Patriots are very well known for going with short passes, even with an underrated run game, and started wondering how a winning record correlates to pass to run ratio.

NFL Year Teams W/Winning Record Teams W/Greater Pass Ratio Teams W/Greater Run Ratio
2008 16 10 6
2007 13 9 4
2006 12 8 4
2005 17 8 9
2004 13 5 7
2003 14 8 6
2002 16 13 3
7 101 61 39

It’s interesting to note that after the extremity of 2002, the ratios slowly balanced back to favor the run until 2005 when the ratio shifted back to the passing game (in part due to the great teams having guys like Brady, Manning, Brees, etc.) Also the number of teams with winning records tends to consistently be between 12-16 teams over the past 7 years and the 2009 season should be within that window as well.

11/17/2009

Is the 4 Wide “Spread” Formation Becoming More Common In the NFL?

Filed under: Pro Football — David Hunter @ 3:17 PM
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Many fans and members of the media have seen how the “Spread” offense has taken college football and high school football by storm, an offshoot of the classic run-and-shoot formation from the mid 80’s to mid 1990’s.

Has that translated to the NFL? I decided to take a look at the percent of pass plays attributed to certain QBs who snap the ball in a 4 or 5 WR formation, the consensus “formation” of pass focused spread offenses. Names are in “order” of NFL team (i.e. Rodgers – Green Bay listed before Brady – New England).

Kurt Warner: 4 WR formation ran 47% of the time. Closest team to a “run-and-shoot”/”spread” style offense in the NFL formation wise.
Matt Ryan: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Joe Flacco: 4 WR formation ran 17% of the time.
Trent Edwards: 4 WR formation ran 10% of the time.
Jake Delhomme: 4 WR formation ran 26% of the time.
Jay Cutler: 4 WR formation ran 9% of the time.
Carson Palmer: 4 WR formation ran 20% of the time.
Aaron Rodgers: 4 WR formation ran 20% of the time.
Tony Romo: 4 WR formation ran 10% of the time.
Kyle Orton: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Matthew Stafford: 4 WR formation ran 3% of the time.
Matt Schaub: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Peyton Manning: 4 WR formation ran 11% of the time.
David Garrard: 4 WR formation ran 9% of the time.
Matt Cassel: 4 WR formation ran 17% of the time.
Chad Henne: 4 WR formation ran 11% of the time.
Brett Favre: 4 WR formation ran 12% of the time.
Tom Brady: 4 WR formation ran 22% of the time.
Drew Brees: 4 WR formation ran 14% of the time.
Eli Manning: 4 WR formation ran 11% of the time.
Mark Sanchez: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
JaMarcus Russell: 4 WR formation ran 5% of the time.
Donovan McNabb: 4 WR formation ran 12% of the time.
Ben Roethlisberger: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Philip Rivers: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Alex Smith: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Matt Hasselbeck: 4 WR formation ran 17% of the time.
Josh Freeman: 4 WR formation ran 3% of the time.
Marc Bulger: 4 WR formation ran 7% of the time.
Vince Young: 4 WR formation ran 9% of the time.
Jason Campbell: 4 WR formation ran 14% of the time.

Interesting that for a majority of teams, the “acceptable” range seems to be around 14-16% of all pass plays being 4 or 5 WR sets. Eye opening is the Colts but they run their 3 WR set over 70% of their pass plays so it arguably balances out.

Note that most of the conservative, defensive minded coaches have extremely low percentages: Jim Schwartz in Detroit, Raheem Morris in TB, Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, Steve Spagnuolo in St. Louis, Tom Cable in Oakland, and Dick Jauron (fired on 11/17) in Buffalo.

Worth mentioning is Tom Brady and Kurt Warner, both well known for their aerial games, also have two of the higher (and in Warner’s case, the highest) percentages in terms of 4 and 5 WR sets.

11/13/2009

Turnovers and Effect on Wins In the NFL

Filed under: Pro Football — David Hunter @ 1:04 PM
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Everybody knows that in order to win games, the team that commits fewer turnovers wins the game by a rather large percentage. Here’s how the best regular season teams of the last 5 years have done with turnover differential.

2008 Season (10 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
13-3 Tennessee Titans: +14
12-4 Indianapolis Colts: +9
12-4 Pittsburgh Steelers: +4 (Won Super Bowl)
12-4 Carolina Panthers: +6
12-4 New York Giants: +9
11-5 Baltimore Ravens: +13
11-5 New England Patriots: +1
11-5 Miami Dolphins: +17
11-5 Atlanta Falcons: -3
10-6 Minnesota Vikings: -6

2007 Season (11 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
16-0 New England Patriots: +16
13-3 Indianapolis Colts: +18
13-3 Dallas Cowboys: +5
13-3 Green Bay Packers: +4
11-5 San Diego Chargers: +24
11-5 Jacksonville Jaguars: +9
10-6 Seattle Seahawks: +10
10-6 Pittsburgh Steelers: +3
10-6 Tennessee Titans: +0
10-6 Cleveland Browns: -2
10-6 New York Giants: -9 (Won Super Bowl)

2006 Season (8 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
14-2 San Diego Chargers: +13
13-3 Baltimore Ravens: +17
13-3 Chicago Bears: +8
12-4 New England Patriots: +8
12-4 Indianapolis Colts: +7 (Won Super Bowl)
10-6 Philadelphia Eagles: +5
10-6 New York Jets: +0
10-6 New Orleans Saints: -4

2005 Season (13 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
14-2 Indianapolis Colts: +12
13-3 Denver Broncos: +20
13-3 Seattle Seahawks: +10
12-4 Jacksonville Jaguars: +11
11-5 Cincinnati Bengals: +24
11-5 Carolina Panthers: +16
11-5 New York Giants: +12
11-5 Pittsburgh Steelers: +7 (Won Super Bowl)
11-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +7
11-5 Chicago Bears: +6
10-6 Kansas City Chiefs: +8
10-6 Washington Redskins: +1
10-6 New England Patriots: -6

2004 Season (9 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
15-1 Pittsburgh Steelers: +11
14-2 New England Patriots: +9 (Won Super Bowl)
13-3 Philadelphia Eagles: +6
12-4 Indianapolis Colts: +19
12-4 San Diego Chargers: +15
11-5 Atlanta Falcons: +2
10-6 New York Jets: +17
10-6 Denver Broncos: -9
10-6 Green Bay Packers: -14

Out of the 51 teams that finished with a record of 10-6 or better, only 8 teams (16%) had a negative turnover differential. Only 1 team, the 2008 Atlanta Falcons, finished with a record better than 10-6. There were 20 teams (39%) that had a positive turnover differential in double digits. Only 2 of those teams finished with a record lower than 11-5, the 2004 New York Jets and the 2007 Seattle Seahawks.

The 5 teams that won the Super Bowl had a combined +18 with the 2007 New York Giants being the only SB champion with a TO differential lower than +4.

Worth noting is how the worst teams of the past 5 years have fared…
2006 Oakland Raiders 2-14: -23
2004 San Francisco 49ers 2-14: -19
2008 Detroit Lions 0-16: -9
2005 Houston Texans 2-14: -8
2007 Miami Dolphins 1-15: -7
2008 Kansas City Chiefs 2-14: +5

They combined for a TO differential of -61 with only the 2008 KC Chiefs posting a positive differential. Worth pointing out is that KC lost 7 games by a TD or less, including 2 games by 1 point, both against the San Diego Chargers.

What does that mean for the 2009 NFL Season that’s through Week 9?

8-0 New Orleans Saints: +8
8-0 Indianapolis Colts: +7
7-1 Minnesota Vikings: +5
6-2 New England Patriots: +8
6-2 Denver Broncos: +5
6-2 Cincinnati Bengals: +2
6-2 Dallas Cowboys: +0
6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers: -2
5-3 Philadelphia Eagles: +11
5-3 Atlanta Falcons: +4
5-3 San Diego Chargers: +1
5-3 Arizona Cardinals: -6

Currently it looks like the Arizona Cardinals will be lucky to finish better than 10-6. The Eagles, if they can keep up the TO differential, look to finish with a great record while most of the teams sitting at 6-2 or better look like they all have a good shot at making the playoffs.

09/29/2009

Buffy/Willow Fan Fiction Stories Worth Checking Out

Filed under: Fan Fiction — David Hunter @ 9:50 AM
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The following are links to many stories focused on the Buffy Summers/Willow Rosenberg (FemSlash) relationship fan fiction wise from the TV show, Buffy the Vampire Slayer.

Author: Mad Hamlet
Story: Spectrum Series (27 Chapters). Warning: Includes Rape

Author: Shyfox and Kirayoshi
Story: Sappho’s Spell Series. Arguably the most known Wiffy fan fic story.

Author: Alicorn
Story: Switcheroony (32 Chapters). Includes Faith as key aspect of storyline.

Author: Crys Loch
Story: The Game Series (11 Chapters). Warning: Involves S&M.

Author: Crys Loch
Story: Vampire Stories (3 Chapters). Warning: Includes threesome with Xander Harris.

Author: Jin Hayte
Story: Just Another (Christmas) Day. One Shot.

Author: Howard Russell
Story: The Morning After. Cute ficlet.

Author: Rin
Story: New and Old: Part 1 of the memorable Red series written by Rin. Making Things Perfect: Part 2 of Red series. Everything I Ever Wanted: Part 3 of Red series. Start of a New Life: Part 4 of Red series. Hey, Baby: Part 5 of Red series. Welcome Home: Part 6 of Red series.

Author: Rebelrsr
Story: Simple Choices (38 Chapters). Fic Challenge.

Author: Boo (Willow’sBoo)
Story: Stones In the Road (7 Chapters).

Author: DawnBTVS
Story: Reveal (34 Chapters).

Author: Cilia
Story: The Complex Lives of Cheerleaders and Quarterbacks (12 Chapters).

Author: Chimera Bloom
Story: Scroll to bottom. Starts with You Used To Be Mine, Part 1.

Author: Exiled-Away
Story: Afterlife Happens (11 Chapters).

Author: Papa Bear
Story: Everyone Else Could See It (3 Chapters).

Author: Papa Bear
Story: Life Is Short (7 Chapters).

09/22/2009

The Concept of the Perfect Pop Song Being Two Minutes, Forty Two Seconds

Filed under: Uncategorized — David Hunter @ 7:12 PM
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Many tongue-in-cheek posts and comments make reference to the ideal pop song length. That length is a very short, brisk, and concise 2 minutes and 42 seconds as pointed out by Josh Allen and John Scalzi in a much earlier entry.

I’m just as happy as the next guy to listen to a Metallica song go roaring for over 5 minutes or throw in a jazz piece by Miles Davis that seemingly transcends time forever. But let’s face facts, many songs are arguably just too long to be appreciated. An artist just has to repeat a refrain six times or throw in a bridge, an extended break down, and then repeat the verse/chorus one final time as if the listener didn’t already hear this and its impact will be that much more than the first two times.

The La’s – There She Goes is often argued as the perfect pop song. The video itself stretches out to 2:48 and it’s hard to not see the greatness of that song. Infectious, memorable, and short to the point that you can listen to it twice in the span of time it takes for other songs to finish.

Just take note of the following list of songs around the 2:42 mark. I’ll bet you’re already humming half of these.

Note that all song lengths are taken from All Music.

1959 – Chuck Berry: Johnny B. Goode – 2:38
1963 – The Beatles: Money (That’s What I Want) – 2:51
1963 – The Beach Boys: Surfin’ USA – 2:31
1964 – The Beach Boys: I Get Around (Live Concert Version) – 2:42
1965 – The Temptations: My Girl – 2:42
1966 – Nancy Sinatra: These Boots Are Made For Walking – 2:42
1966 – The Beatles: Taxman – 2:38
1966 – The Mamas and The Papas: California Dreamin’ – 2:32
1966 – The Troggs: Wild Thing – 2:37
1967 – Cream: Strange Brew – 2:50
1967 – Cream: Tales of Brave Ulysses – 2:49
1967 – Jimi Hendrix: Fire – 2:45
1967 – Sandie Shaw: (There’s) Always Something To Remind Me – 2:40
1968 – Equals: Baby Come Back – 2:39
1968 – The Beatles: Happiness Is A Warm Gun – 2:44
1969 – The Archies: Sugar, Sugar – 2:48
1971 – Black Sabbath: Paranoid – 2:50
1978 – Buzzcocks: Ever Fallen In Love? – 2:42
1980 – Motorhead: Ace of Spades – 2:49
1989 – Nirvana: About A Girl – 2:48
1990 – The La’s: There She Goes – 2:42
1993 – The Breeders: Divine Hammer – 2:42
1994 – Weezer: Buddy Holly – 2:40
1997 – Green Day: Good Riddance (Time of Your Life) – 2:34
1999 – Blink 182: All The Small Things – 2:48
2005 – Dropkick Murphys – I’m Shipping Up To Boston – 2:33

That’s a really strong list of songs that range from roughly 2:30 to 2:50 in song length. Also note that several classic pop songs come in at exactly 2:42 on the nose.

09/08/2009

Halloween Events To Check Out In New England

Filed under: Uncategorized — David Hunter @ 10:27 AM
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While it may not even be the middle of September, everybody knows that Halloween will be coming right around the corner. With that comes scare events, haunted tours, and a bevy of interesting Halloween based events.

What: The Haunted Graveyard at Lake Compounce
Where: Middleton, Connecticut
When: October 2nd – October 31st. Open Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Times are Dusk-Midnight (Fri-Sat) and Dusk-10 PM (Sun).
Prices: Haunted Graveyard and Rides = Adult – $29.99, Kids (Under 12) – $20.99. Haunted Graveyard Only = Adult – $19.99, Kids (Under 12) – $13.99. Rides Only = Adult – $17.99, Kids (Under 12) – $12.99.

What: Fortress of Nightmares w/Ghost Hunt with members from RISEUP
Where: Fort Adams, Rhode Island
When: October 23rd – October 25th and October 30th – November 1st. Start times at 7:00 PM with ticket sales from 6:30 – 9:00 PM.
Prices: Ghost Hunt & Tunnel of Terror = $15.00. Ghost Hunt Only = $10.00. Tunnel of Terror Only = $15.00.

What: Nautical Nightmares Tour
Where: Mystic Seaport, Connecticut
When: October 16th – October 18th, October 23rd – October 25th, and October 30th – October 31st. Start at 6:15 PM and leave every 15 minutes.
Prices: Adult = $19.00. Youth (4-18) = $18.00.

What: Rhode Island International Horror Film Festival
Where: Providence, Rhode Island. The showings will occur at the Columbus Theatre Arts Center, the Cable Car Cinema, the Bell Street Chapel, the Providence Public Library Campus, The Narragansett Theatre in Narragansett, and the Courthouse Center for the Arts in Kingston.
When: October 22nd – October 25th
Prices: All = $10.00.

What: Portsmouth Haunted Pub Tour
Where: Portsmouth, New Hampshire
When: Sunday Tours = October 4th, 11th, 18th, and 25th at 2:00 PM. Tuesday Tours = October 20th and 27th at 6:00 PM.
Prices: All = $29.00

What: York Village Shadows of the Past Tour
Where: York Village, Maine.
When: October 21st at 7:00 PM
Prices: Adults = $12.00, Children = $8.00.

What: Legends, Ghosts, and Graves Tour
Where: Portsmouth, New Hampshire
When: October 3rd, 10th, 17th, and 30th at 7:00 PM
Prices: Adults = $20.00, Children (Under 12) = $10.00

The following are haunted locations one can stay at or visit if they desire during Halloween week.

What: The Lighthouse Inn Resort
Where: New London, Connecticut

What: Captain Grant’s Inn
Where: Preston, Connecticut

What: Colonial Inn – Room 24
Where: Concord, Massachusetts

What: Penny House Inn & Spa
Where: Eastham, Massachusetts (Cape Cod)

What: Brass Lantern Inn
Where: Stowe, Vermont

What: The Golden Stage Inn
Where: Cavendish, Vermont

What: Coffin House Restaurant
Where: Nantucket, Massachusetts (Cape Cod)

What: Salisbury Beach
Where: Salisbury Beach is located on Route 1A in Essex County. From I-95, take exit 58 towards Salisbury/Amesbury onto Route 110 and follow the signs to Salisbury Beach.

What: Bucksport Cemetery
Where: The cemetery is located off of Maine Street/Highway 1 in Bucksport, in Hancock County.

What: Massacre Pond
Where: Massacre Pond is located in the Scarborough Beach State Park on 416 Black Point Road in Cumberland County.

08/15/2009

How Differences in Scoring Relate To Fantasy Football Positions

Filed under: Pro Football — David Hunter @ 10:17 AM
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Everybody knows that in order to win a fantasy football league, an owner has to have a great draft, scour the waiver wire, make shrewd trades, and get lucky on later round picks. What many fantasy owners attempt but fail to do well is cater to their league’s scoring when it comes to the initial fantasy draft. Following is an example of how scoring can affect QBs who all put up similar statistics. Note that the stats used are from the 2008 season.

Scoring 1: 1 point per 25 passing, 6 pts per TD, -3 per INT, 1 point per 10 rushing, 6 points per TD. In this scoring set up, Eli Manning is fairly close to Garrard while the drop off from Eli to Orton is steep.
- David Garrard: 240.00 FP
- Eli Manning: 232.52 FP
- Kyle Orton: 213.78 FP
- Matt Schaub: 200.52 FP
- Jake Delhomme: 199.62 FP

Scoring 2: 1 point per 20 passing, 4 points per TD, -1 per INT, 1 point per 10 rushing, 6 points per TD. In this scoring setup, Garrard runs away from everybody else.
- David Garrard: 272.20 FP
- Eli Manning: 242.90 FP
- Kyle Orton: 231.50 FP
- Jake Delhomme: 226.50 FP
- Matt Schaub: 220.95 FP

Scoring 3: 1 point per 25 passing, 6 points per TD, 1 point per 10 rushing, 6 points per TD. Again, there’s a drop off but all the quarterbacks get an overall boost with Garrard again pulling away from the other three.
- David Garrard: 279.00 FP
- Eli Manning: 262.52 FP
- Kyle Orton: 249.78 FP
- Jake Delhomme: 235.62 FP
- Matt Schaub: 230.52 FP

Scoring 4: 1 point per 20 passing, 6 points per TD, -2 per INT, 5 points for 300 yards bonus, 1 point per 10 rushing, 6 points per TD. While Garrard again runs away, Schaub is suddenly a better option than Orton in this type of scoring format. Note that Delhomme finishes well last.
- David Garrard: 299.20 FP
- Eli Manning: 279.90 FP
- Matt Schaub: 260.95 FP
- Kyle Orton: 260.50 FP
- Jake Delhomme: 244.50 FP

In just looking at 4 different scoring formats, you see a wide range of values. Garrard, in 3 of them, runs away while Eli Manning is a fairly close option in the first scoring setup. Jake Delhomme manages to outscore Matt Schaub in 2 formats and Matt Schaub outscores Kyle Orton in 1 format.

When you draft for your fantasy football league, make sure you know your leagues scoring and who will benefit from it (and who won’t) not just at QB but at all positions.

08/11/2009

Looking Deeper at the Forty Yard Dash’s Effect In the NFL Draft War Rooms

Filed under: College Football, Pro Football — David Hunter @ 11:20 AM
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I stumbled upon this article: 40 Yard Dash History and came upon several interesting quotes which I’ll look at piece by piece.

“They can take somebody who runs a 4.65 and get him down to a 4.55 — and sometimes even better than that,” says Gil Brandt, the Cowboys personnel chief from 1960 to ‘88 who works for Sirius Satellite Radio and NFL.com.

It’s noteworthy that the NFL Combine is well known for as of late, being electronically timed. This isn’t more on display than comparing RB Chris “Beanie” Wells who was coming out of Ohio State. At the Combine, he ran a “slow” 4.59 by most scouts. However, at his official Pro Day, he ran at the lowest range, a 4.46 on an admittedly fast track. So even if scouts tooks Wells’ slowest time, he still ran 0.13 faster than he did at the NFL Combine.

“So at the end of the 1960 season, we sat down and worked out a 40-20-10 formula. Everyone would run a 40, but there would be 20- and 10-yard splits. We used the 20-yard split for offensive linemen because how often do they have to run 40 yards in a game? And we used the 10-yard split for wide receivers, in an effort to gauge their burst of speed off the line.”

This is very eye opening as well, especially in regards to wide receivers. Let’s compare several notable receivers from the 2005 NFL Combine, some busts, some worked out great. The first number is the 40, the second number is the 20, and the 3rd number is the 10.

Mark Clayton: 4.40 – 2.59 – 1.55
Chris Henry: 4.50 – 2.68 – 1.64
Vincent Jackson: 4.46 – 2.63 – 1.57
Mike Williams: 4.56 – 2.70 – 1.66
Troy Williamson: 4.32 – 2.57 – 1.58

If you look at the above players, you’d say that Troy Williamson had a hell of a 40 yard dash and was a flat out burner, right? Well, if you look a little bit deeper, you’ll notice that Mark Clayton had a similar 20 yard split and that both Mark Clayton and Vincent Jackson had faster 10 yard splits. Very rarely does a WR come off the line of scrimmage without some physical contact, so that 10 yard split turns out to be much more important as it’s the difference between separation deep and a CB keeping up.

Let’s compare it to RBs, who often make their living with “big plays” of 20-30 yard runs game after game. Here, we see the 10 yard split (and 20 yard split) is just as vital for a RB who needs an explosive start and needs to hit top speed immediately.

J.J. Arrington: 4.40 – 2.62 – 1.58
Ronnie Brown: 4.43 – 2.63 – 1.50
Ryan Grant: 4.43 – 2.65 – 1.57
Brandon Jacobs: 4.56 – 2.72 – 1.69
Darren Sproles: 4.47 – 2.62 – 1.55
Carnell Williams: 4.43 – 2.61 – 1.58

Note that both Ronnie Brown and Darren Sproles are explosively fast within 10 yards while Carnell Williams and Ryan Grant are both very good within 10 and 20 yards. Sproles had the 2nd slowest 40 but the 2nd fastest 10 yard split among this group. Brandon Jacobs’ size means his 40 would still be “exceptional” but you see how limited he can be when you look at his splits.

“Jerry Rice was an example of that in later years,” Brandt says. “He ran in the low 4.60s at the combine — not a stellar time — but with his equipment on, he probably ran faster than some of the players who would have beaten him in shorts. He was just so strong he carried his equipment well.”

This has been a long lament among some NFL fans who follow the NFL Combine, wishing that the players would be forced to run in full pads to better display how they “carry their equipment” and better show how true their on field speed is. There’s the old adage that some players play faster (or slower) on the field and that is just as true now as it was before.

“A slow timer will get a guy in 4.47, whereas a fast timer will get him in 4.42. And that 500th of a second could have to do with how someone uses his stopwatch.”

This is worth noting, especially with the recent spate of reports of college football players running in the 4.2 range (Chris Johnson ran a 4.24 at the NFL Combine) such as Miami WR Sam Shields who was supposedly timed at 4.2. QB Terrell Pryor out of Ohio State was timed at a 4.33. For comparison, ESPN reported that QB Michael Vick ran a 4.36 at his 2001 Mini Camp.

08/09/2009

Examining Whether Quarterback Ratings Increase or Decrease In Their 2nd Year

Filed under: Pro Football — David Hunter @ 12:36 PM
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A case is often made about rookie quarterbacks settling down after their first season and stepping up in their second season. Media pundits often talk about sophomore slumps but the data below seems to prove that for a QB, much more often than not, they take a big leap forward. Such news bolds well for QBs like JaMarcus Russell, Matt Cassel, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco who all started their first full seasons last year. Note that the Year 1/Year 2 reflect full starting seasons (min. 10 games started) for a more complete, accurate picture (see Kyle Orton as one example of a stretch in between Y1 and Y2).

Troy Aikman
- Year 1 QB Rating: 55.7
- Year 2 QB Rating: 66.6 (+10.90)

Ken Anderson
- Year 1 QB Rating: 74.0
- Year 2 QB Rating: 81.2 (+7.2)

Tony Banks
- Year 1 QB Rating: 71.0
- Year 2 QB Rating: 71.5 (+0.50)

Charlie Batch
- Year 1 QB Rating: 83.5
- Year 2 QB Rating: 84.1 (+0.6)

Drew Bledsoe
- Year 1 QB Rating: 65.0
- Year 2 QB Rating: 73.6 (+8.6)

Kyle Boller
- Year 1 QB Rating: 62.4
- Year 2 QB Rating: 70.9 (+8.5)

Terry Bradshaw
- Year 1 QB Rating: 30.4
- Year 2 QB Rating: 59.7 (+29.3)

Tom Brady
- Year 1 QB Rating: 86.5
- Year 2 QB Rating: 85.7 (-0.8)

Drew Brees
- Year 1 QB Rating: 76.9
- Year 2 QB Rating: 67.5 (-9.4)

Mark Brunell
- Year 1 QB Rating: 82.6
- Year 2 QB Rating: 84.0 (+1.4)

Marc Bulger
- Year 1 QB Rating: 81.4
- Year 2 QB Rating: 93.7 (+12.3)

Jason Campbell
- Year 1 QB Rating: 77.6
- Year 2 QB Rating: 84.3 (+6.7)

David Carr
- Year 1 QB Rating: 62.8
- Year 2 QB Rating: 69.5 (+6.7)

Kerry Collins
- Year 1 QB Rating: 61.9
- Year 2 QB Rating: 79.4 (+17.5)

Tim Couch
- Year 1 QB Rating: 73.2
- Year 2 QB Rating: 77.3 (+4.1)

Daunte Culpepper
- Year 1 QB Rating: 98.0
- Year 2 QB Rating: 83.3 (-14.7)

Jay Cutler
- Year 1 QB Rating: 88.5
- Year 2 QB Rating: 88.1 (-0.4)

Jake Delhomme
- Year 1 QB Rating: 80.6
- Year 2 QB Rating: 87.3 (+6.7)

Trent Edwards
- Year 1 QB Rating: 70.4
- Year 2 QB Rating: 85.4 (+15.0)

John Elway
- Year 1 QB Rating: 54.9
- Year 2 QB Rating: 76.8 (+21.9)

Jeff Garcia
- Year 1 QB Rating: 77.9
- Year 2 QB Rating: 97.6 (+19.7)

David Garrard
- Year 1 QB Rating: 80.5
- Year 2 QB Rating: 102.2 (+21.7)

Otto Graham
- Year 1 QB Rating: 64.7
- Year 2 QB Rating: 79.2 (+14.5)

Bob Griese
- Year 1 QB Rating: 61.6
- Year 2 QB Rating: 75.7 (+14.1)

Brian Griese
- Year 1 QB Rating: 75.6
- Year 2 QB Rating: 102.9 (+27.3)

Joey Harrington
- Year 1 QB Rating: 59.9
- Year 2 QB Rating: 63.9 (+4.0)

Matt Hasselbeck
- Year 1 QB Rating: 87.8
- Year 2 QB Rating: 88.8 (+1.0)

Jim Kelly
- Year 1 QB Rating: 83.3
- Year 2 QB Rating: 83.8 (+0.5)

Jon Kitna
- Year 1 QB Rating: 77.7
- Year 2 QB Rating: 75.6 (-2.1)

Byron Leftwich
- Year 1 QB Rating: 73.0
- Year 2 QB Rating: 82.2 (+9.2)

Eli Manning
- Year 1 QB Rating: 75.9
- Year 2 QB Rating: 77.0 (+1.1)

Peyton Manning
- Year 1 QB Rating: 71.2
- Year 2 QB Rating: 90.7 (+19.5)

Dan Marino
- Year 1 QB Rating: 96.0
- Year 2 QB Rating: 108.9 (+12.9)

Donovan McNabb
- Year 1 QB Rating: 77.8
- Year 2 QB Rating: 84.3 (+6.5)

Steve McNair
- Year 1 QB Rating: 70.4
- Year 2 QB Rating: 80.1 (+9.7)

Warren Moon
- Year 1 QB Rating: 76.9
- Year 2 QB Rating: 68.5 (-8.4)

Joe Montana
- Year 1 QB Rating: 87.8
- Year 2 QB Rating: 88.4 (+0.6)

Kyle Orton
- Year 1 QB Rating: 59.7
- Year 2 QB Rating: 79.6 (+19.9)

Carson Palmer
- Year 1 QB Rating: 77.3
- Year 2 QB Rating: 101.1 (+23.8)

Chad Pennington
- Year 1 QB Rating: 104.2
- Year 2 QB Rating: 91.0 (-13.2)

Jake Plummer
- Year 1 QB Rating: 73.1
- Year 2 QB Rating: 75.0 (+1.9)

Philip Rivers
- Year 1 QB Rating: 92.0
- Year 2 QB Rating: 82.4 (-9.6)

Ben Roethlisberger
- Year 1 QB Rating: 98.1
- Year 2 QB Rating: 98.6 (+0.5)

Tony Romo
- Year 1 QB Rating: 95.1
- Year 2 QB Rating: 97.4 (+2.3)

Matt Schaub
- Year 1 QB Rating: 87.2
- Year 2 QB Rating: 92.7 (+5.5)

Phil Simms
- Year 1 QB Rating: 66.0
- Year 2 QB Rating: 58.9 (-7.1)

Roger Staubach
- Year 1 QB Rating: 104.8
- Year 2 QB Rating: 94.6 (-10.2)

Fran Tarkenton
- Year 1 QB Rating: 74.7
- Year 2 QB Rating: 66.9 (-7.8)

Vinny Testaverde
- Year 1 QB Rating: 68.9
- Year 2 QB Rating: 75.6 (+6.7)

Johnny Unitas
- Year 1 QB Rating: 74.0
- Year 2 QB Rating: 88.0 (+14.0)

Michael Vick
- Year 1 QB Rating: 81.6
- Year 2 QB Rating: 78.1 (-3.5)

Kurt Warner
- Year 1 QB Rating: 109.2
- Year 2 QB Rating: 98.3 (-10.9)

Vince Young
- Year 1 QB Rating: 66.7
- Year 2 QB Rating: 71.1 (+4.4)

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