Warren Buffett Ground Rules to Sports Cards

#1 – “It’s a huge structural advantage to not have a lot of money.”

You can generate a higher rate of return based on investing a smaller amount of money in more value based cards.  At a lower price point due to money available, you can get a 20% return on a card purchased at $25 more easily than trying to get a 20% return on a card purchased for $2,500 (sell for $30 compared to selling for $3,000).

Right now, a 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan PSA 9 is going for $30,000.  To make just a 5% return, you would have to sell the card for $31,500.  Just a year ago, this card was selling for around $12,360 and selling that for just $12,978 would have netted the same 5% return.  Somebody who picked this card up at $94,000 at the start of February has seen it drop down to $30,000.  This card has dropped over 60% from that high and to make just a 5% return on their purchase, that investor would have to sell it at $98,700.

Compare that to a PSA 9 of the same set of Charles Barkley selling for $975 and Patrick Ewing PSA 9 selling for $425.  If you only had $2,000 to invest and went for these two cards instead, getting a 10% return would mean selling the Barkley at $1,073 and the Ewing at $468.  Those seem a lot more attainable in 5 to 10 years than hoping that Jordan goes up to almost $99,000.

#2 – “Our investments will be chosen on the basis of value, not popularity.”

People chasing the 2007 Topps Chrome Kevin Durant rookie card may be missing out on better value plays at lower costs and instead overpay or overspend to get in on the hot new thing deemed most popular.  Same can also go for card brands such as when 2020 Mosaic was first released and was being hyped up as the next Panini Prizm for the rookie classes.  1984 PSA 9s of John Elway and Dan Marino have followed almost literally the exact same path in the market and are currently selling for around $400 to $500.  A Justin Herbert 2020 Silver Prizm PSA 9 is selling for $725 because he is coming off a Rookie of the Year award and Silver Prizms were heavily hyped as the focal point for investing.  Herbert has more volatility in his market and fewer sales due to supply.  One would easily argue that Herbert’s best case scenario is a John Elway like career and yet Elway is going for almost $250 to $300 less.

#3 – The market can and will at times be completely deranged and irrational in the short term, but over the long term it will price securities in line with their underlying intrinsic values.

The craziness over the base cards early in 2020 showcased those investors were massively overlooking RPAs and Autographs in general.  They were also overlooking parallels and numbered cards, allowing for advantageous purchases by those who did their homework at the time.  Later, the market started shifting towards vintage and serial numbered cards, bringing up their values to where they should have been initially as the market recognized those values.

February of 2021 was bonkers, as was May and June of 2020.  The people looking long term realized those spectacular spikes were not sustainable either smartly sold or held steadfast knowing the long-term prospects of their cards would be better off than trying to buy at the high points.  The PSA 10 of the Fernando Tatis Jr. 2019 Topps Gold #’d out of 2019 peaked at $2,575 in February 2021.  That Gold dropped to $950-$1,300 in September through December of 2020 and has dropped down to $1,700 in July of 2021.

The people who had Ronald Acuna Jr’s 2018 Topps SP Variation are holding onto the card because they trust the long term ability of that player and the card prices reflect that there has not been much of a drop off despite his season ending injury.

#4 – Focus on finding the right businesses at the right prices.

Each player is a “business” unto themselves.  The trick is to try and home in on the player and decide whether the speculation is legitimate, and the price point represents value.  Throwing darts at 20 different players, just because they are going into a 2^nd or 3^rd year and could breakout mean the margin for safety is much lower, there is more risk invested, and showcases a possible lack of analysis.  A player sitting on the bench who could start e.g. Ryan Finley may be a poor “business” investment compared to somebody who is a starting quarterback but is not flashy e.g. Matt Ryan or Kirk Cousins.

A lot of people have transitioned to GOAT Investing but that can represent its own flaws as seen in point 1.  Also the investors who followed others and invested in “Year 2” cards without understanding why probably got burned too.  Compare the following 4 NFL QBs.

Russell Wilson: 1 Super Bowl, Entering his 10^th Season, Never won fewer than 9 Games.  His 2012 Prizm PSA 9 is currently $290.

Joe Burrow: Coming off Injury, Entering his 2^nd Season, #1 Pick.  His 2020 Prizm PSA 9 is currently $140.

Jordan Love: Sitting on bench behind Aaron Rodgers, Entering his 2^nd Season, #26 Pick.  His 2020 Prizm PSA 9 is $78.00.

Dak Prescott: Coming off Injury, Entering his 6^th Season, Rookie of the Year.  His 2016 Prizm Silver PSA 9 is currently sitting at $290.

Wilson in that group looks like a bargain basement price.  He has won a Super Bowl, likely to make the Hall of Fame, and will likely be a brand when he retires.  Burrow is already coming off an injury and is pretty unproven despite being the #1 Pick.  Love is sitting on the bench with at least another year until he possibly starts for Green Bay and that is not guaranteed.  Dak is also coming off an injury but is more proven with the concern being if he can consistently take Dallas to the playoffs.

#5 – “… But the accuracy of our analysis of the company will largely determine whether we are right.”

Trying to time the market is next to impossible and that also goes for the sports card market.  If you put in the time, trust your analysis, and determine whether the player you’ve invested in is worth the price paid, then it should pay off over the long term.  Aaron Rodgers’ 2005 Score PSA 10 could have been picked up for $150 back in September of 2020.  It has climbed up to around $300 and has a better chance of rising in 10-20 years compared to say a PSA 10 rookie card of Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins.  With that said, nobody knows the future.  See Andrew Luck suddenly retiring.  If you had that Score card should you sell it now at $300?  What about when it had gone up to $238 in December of 2020?  If not then, why not at $220 in January of 2020 when it dipped a little?  Trying to predict or time the market is a fool’s errand.

#6 – “My own thinking is much more geared to five-year performance…”

The long game matters. Short term swings and peaks and valleys can greatly skew whether an investor is successful or not but taking a long-term approach helps show how a player does during the lows and highs of a market.  The market over 5 to 10 years will always correct itself from either an extreme low or an extreme high.  Just see how the stock market rebounded from the 2009 Recession and 2020 Unemployment crises.  Now that the sports market rose so extreme, we are seeing the correction in the market leading to card prices coming down dramatically from extreme highs.  If the floor fell out, we would eventually see the market rise from those lows as well.  It is all cyclical.

#7 – “Forget what you know about buying fair businesses at wonderful prices; buy wonderful businesses at fair prices.”

Instead of going in heavily on a lot of fair potential who could breakout just because they are at a lower price, target the better player who may be higher priced but still represent good value.  Think paying up for a Kawhi Leonard over Jaylen Brown or paying up for Adrian Peterson over Chris Carson.

Going back to the 4 QB comparison, buying in on Russell Wilson at $290 seems like you are paying more but he is a “wonderful business” at a fair price compared to say Jordan Love at $78 who is a “fair business” at a wonderful price.  As Warren Buffett got older and had more money, his attitude has slightly changed to still focus on bargains and values but to do so at slightly higher price points.

A Michael Jordan selling at $200 when it was $2,000 is still a far better value than a Devin Booker selling at $20 when it was at $200.

#8 – “There is often little or nothing to indicate immediate market improvement.  The issues lack glamour or market sponsorship.  Their main qualification is a bargain price…”

Rather than chasing the white whale, the main targets Warren Buffett focused on were under the radar companies that represented great value due to their price point based on earnings price.  Everybody can run after a 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan being pumped up but maybe the smarter targets are the rookie cards of a Carmelo Anthony or Dirk Nowitzki because they aren’t as flashy or spotlighted but are also better value.

A 2003 Topps Chrome PSA 10 Carmelo Anthony is currently $445 while a 1998 Topps Chrome PSA 10 Dirk Nowitzki is currently $1,450.  Compare those to a 2003 Topps Chrome PSA 10 LeBron James going for $18,000.

Carmelo and Dirk are both HOF caliber players and Carmelo has the bonus of being in the same rookie class as LeBron James.  While LeBron is the GOAT, the former two (especially Carmelo) represent great value because both are good people off the court and represent multiple generations in terms of fandom.  Neither are flashy or highly pimped by Youtube personalities so they remain relatively under the radar.

Book Review: Patriot Reign by Michael Holley

Title: Patriot Reign
Author: Michael Holley
Publisher: Paperback – HarperCollins
Release Date: Hardcover – 2004, Paperback – 2005
Pages: 237 (Start through Epilogue)
Rating: *** out of *****

Michael Holley gives the reader a great, albeit brief, look at the New England Patriots during the 2002 and 2003 NFL seasons. Holley’s writing style is a very easy, quick read for fans while being insightful and putting the focus on the important aspects of various points over the course of a season.

The best parts of the book are the access into the backstage area of the Patriots. This ranges from coaches meetings discussing certain players during the offseason through their discussion on potential draft prospects. The NFL Draft section of the book is in particular an absolute highlight and worth picking up the book for alone.

The only letdown of the book is the brevity of the actual regular season. Key games are highlighted or briefly combed over during both the 2002 Season (which would have been interesting to get more depth on considering the Patriot’s success before and since then) and the 2003 Season en route to the Super Bowl.

If you are looking for a book that gives you unprecedented access to the lockerroom and an understanding of what the coaching staff of the Patriots demanded during the 2002-2003 seasons, this is the book for you.

You can purchase it here at Amazon: Amazon Paperback Edition

Impact of Free Throw Efficiency on Player Total

When one thinks of free throw shots, they think immediately of players standing at the line uncontested. Probably the easiest basket an NBA player could attempt outside of a wide open dunk.

Many people can scoff at the importance of free throw attempts but here is a small example of why free throws are so important to the individual player and their overall scoring prowess.

Let’s take the first example of Shaquille O’Neal with his infamous one hand technique.

Through the 2010 NBA Season as of this post, Shaquille O’Neal has attempted 11,252 free throws with a success rate of just 52.7%. On the floor, however, he has scored a field goal at an incredibly efficient 58.2%.

Let us argue that O’Neal averages 16 shots and 9 free throws in a single game. That would give him a total of 25 shots all scoring just 2 points.

At his current career success rate, O’Neal would score 18 points off field goals and 5 points off free throws for a pretty solid 23 points in that game. Most fans would be pretty happy with that total.

Now let’s pretend that O’Neal has improved his free throw percentage to 60%. That gives him the same ability to score 23 points with a likely bump of another free throw made for 24 points.

Let’s say that Shaq has radically improved and is suddenly making 73% of his free throws (similar to David Robinson for his career). Shaq suddenly scores 7 or 8 points on free throws alone, in addition to his 18 points on the floor. Now, his team has an additional “field goal” made just by Shaq increasing his free throw efficiency.

Shaquille O’Neal: Single Game Breakdown
Career Average [58.2% and 52.7%]: 18 Points + 4-5 Points = 22 to 23 Points
58.2% Field Goal and 60.0% Free T: 18 Points + 5-6 Points = 23 to 24 Points
58.2% Field Goal and 73.0% Free T: 18 Points + 6-7 Points = 24 to 25 Points

By improving his free throw shooting percentage to almost 75%, Shaquille O’Neal would have scored the equivalent of another field goal or even a 3 point shot.

Michael Jordan was an incredibly effective free throw shooter, scoring at an 83.5% rate. If you decided that Jordan started declining heavily and was approaching Allen Iverson‘s career rate of 78.0% instead, Jordan would have scored 485 fewer points in his career. Instead of making 7 points per game at the free throw line, Jordan would have scored only 6 points per game at the free throw line. Not an extreme example to a fan but maybe the Bulls wouldn’t win a game on a clinching Jordan jumper, instead merely tying the game and forcing overtime instead.

LeBron James is only shooting 74.4% for his career on his free throw attempts. He is averaging around 7 points game through his free throws alone. If James were more efficient and shooting around 85%, he would be scoring an additional 8 points a game. Add that up over the course of a season and suddenly the team he is playing for scores an additional point a game. James himself would add an additional 82 points to his end of year total.

New England Patriots: Team Stat Comparison From 2001-2010

Here’s a comparison of the New England Patriots from 2001 through their 2010 regular season.

2001: Won Super Bowl
QBs: Threw 482 times for 21 TD vs. 15 INT and 46 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: Antowain Smith carried 287 times for a 4.0 YPC and 12 TD.
WRs: Troy Brown had 101 catches, David Patten had 51 catches, Terry Glenn and Charles Johnson had 14 catches.
TEs: Jermaine Wiggins had 14 catches and Rod Rutledge had 5 catches.

Defensively the team had 39 Sacks (6-7 from Bobby Hamilton, Anthony Pleasant, and Willie McGinest) along with 22 INT.

2002: Missed Playoffs
QBs: Threw 605 times for 28 TD vs. 14 INT and 31 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: Antowain Smith carried 252 times for a 3.9 YPC and 6 TD.
WRs: Troy Brown had 97 catches, David Patten had 61, and Deion Branch had 43 catches.
TEs: Christian Fauria had 27 catches and Daniel Graham had 15 catches.

Defensively the team had 33 Sacks (4 players had 4.5 to 5.5) along with 18 INT.

2003: Won Super Bowl
QBs: Threw 537 times for 23 TD vs. 13 INT and 32 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: Antowain Smith had 182 carries with a 3.5 YPC and 3 TD. Kevin Faulk had 178 carries for a 3.6 YPC and 0 TD.
WRs: Deion Branch had 57 catches, Troy Brown had 40 catches, and David Givens had 34 catches.
TEs: Daniel Graham had 38 catches and Christian Fauria had 28 catches.

Defensively the team had 41 Sacks (Mike Vrabel and Richard Seymour at 9.5 and 8) along with 29 INT (Ty Law and Tyrone Poole had 6 each).

2004: Won Super Bowl
QBs: Threw 485 times for 29 TD vs. 14 INT and 26 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: Corey Dillon had 345 carries for a 4.7 YPC and 12 TD.
WRs: David Givens had 56 catches, David Patten had 44 catches, and Deion Branch had 35 catches.
TEs: Daniel Graham had 30 catches and Christian Fauria had 16 catches.

Defensively the team had 45 Sacks (Willie McGinest at 9.5, 3 others at 5.0-5.5) and 20 INT.

2005: Lost Divisional Round
QBs: Threw 564 times for 28 TD vs. 15 INT and 28 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: Corey Dillon had 209 carries for a 3.5 YPC and 12 TD
WRs: Deion Branch had 78 catches, David Givens had 59 catches, and Troy Brown had 39 catches.
TEs: Ben Watson had 29 catches and Daniel Graham had 16 catches.

Defensively the team had 33 Sacks (Willie McGinest and Roosevelt Colvin had 6 and 7 Sacks) along with 10 INT.

2006: Lost AFC Title Game
QBs: Threw 527 times for 25 TD vs. 12 INT and 29 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: Corey Dillon had 199 carries for a 4.1 YPC and 13 TD. Laurence Maroney had 175 carries for a 4.3 YPC and 6 TD.
WRs: Reche Caldwell had 61 catches, Troy Brown had 43 catches, and Doug Gabriel had 25 catches.
TEs: Ben Watson had 49 catches and Daniel Graham had 21 catches.

Defensively the team had 44 Sacks (Jarvis Green and Ty Warren had 7.5 and Roosevelt Colvin had 8.5) along with 22 INT.

2007: Lost Super Bowl
QBs: Threw 586 times for 50 TD vs. 9 INT with 21 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: Laurence Maroney had 185 carries for a 4.5 YPC and 6 TD.
WRs: Wes Welker had 112 catches, Randy Moss had 98 catches, and Donte Stallworth had 46 catches.
TEs: Ben Watson had 36 catches and Kyle Brady had 9 catches.

Defensively the team had 46 Sacks (Mike Vrabel had 12.5. Adalius Thomas and Jarvis Green had 6.5 each) along with 19 INT.

2008: Missed Playoffs
QBs: Threw 534 times for 21 TD vs. 11 INT with 48 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: Sammy Morris had 156 carries for a 4.7 YPC and 7 TD.
WRs: Wes Welker had 111 catches, Randy Moss had 69 catches, and Jabar Gaffney had 38 catches.
TEs: Ben Watson had 22 catches and David Thomas had 9 catches.

Defensively the team had 30 Sacks (Richard Seymour had 8) along with 14 INT.

2009: Lost WildCard Game
QBs: Threw 592 times for 28 TD vs. 13 INT with 18 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: Laurence Maroney had 194 carries for a 3.9 YPC and 9 TD.
WRs: Wes Welker had 123 catches, Randy Moss had 83 catches, and Julian Edelman had 37 catches.
TEs: Ben Watson had 29 catches and Chris Baker had 14 catches.

Defensively the team had 31 Sacks (Tully Banta-Cain had 10) along with 18 INT.

2010: Lost Divisional Game
QBs: Threw 507 times for 37 TD vs. 5 INT with 25 Sacks.
RBs/FBs: BenJarvus Green-Ellis carried 229 times for a 4.4 YPC and 13 TD.
WRs: Wes Welker had 86 catches, Deion Branch had 48 catches, and Brandon Tate had 24 catches.
TEs: Aaron Hernandez had 45 catches and Rob Gronkowski had 42 catches.

Defensively the team had 36 Sacks (Tully Banta-Cain had 5 and Mike Wright had 5.5) along with 25 INT (Devin McCourty had 7).

Overall Thoughts: The concept of the Patriots returning to their roots during the 2010 season wasn’t just coach speak or fan speak. Tom Brady threw the ball less, the Patriots relied on a RB to really carry the load for them in Green-Ellis, and the Patriots spread the ball around to a variety of receivers.

It seems that the next steps in returning to their roots completely are to obtain/groom a 3rd and maybe 4th receiver who can get 20-30 catches and improve the pass rush with a goal of topping 40 Sacks.

A Buffy and Willow Manifesto

In large, large part inspired by this 10 Reason manifesto about the Carly/Sam relationship in iCarly, I’ve decided to offer up a similar list revolving around Buffy and Willow.

From the first episode onwards, I’ve always felt an attraction towards the relationship between Buffy and Willow. During the latter stages of Season 1 and throughout Season 2 is when the relationship quickly transitioned from best friends to OTP level for me.

So here are 10 reasons why Buffy and Willow are such a One True Pairing. Warning that there are Spoilers through Season 7.

All screencaps are borrowed from the great Screencap Paradise: Buffy Section website. Much, much gratitude and thanks towards them. Also much thanks to Buffy World for the episode transcripts.

Reason #10: From their first meeting, Buffy was drawn towards Willow and Willow instantly returned the favor.

Buffy initially came over from Hemery High where she was a self professed clone of Cordelia. A high on the totem pole, fashion obsessed, rule the school personality who only hung out with the upper echelon of high school students. So it really is no surprise that Cordelia not only befriends her immediately but starts setting up situations to further their relationship in both Gym class and later meeting up at The Bronze.

The first instance of Buffy seeing Willow is when Cordelia verbally ambushes the redhead at the water fountain. One would assume, given Buffy’s early history, that she would either join in or at least smile and enjoy it. Take note that Buffy first wears a surprised, if not shocked, expression at Cordelia’s verbal taunt but then wears an expression of actual concern as Willow departs.

This is made much more striking considering her first meeting with Xander. She seems pleased that he helps her but her expression as she walks off is largely that he was nice but nothing more. She is also extremely negative towards both Giles and later Angel. Contrast that to Willow, where she expresses concern despite not even uttering a single word.

This scene always makes me wonder what Buffy’s character was thinking as she watches Willow walk off.

Buffy: Why don’t we start with, ‘Hi, I’m Buffy,’ and, uh, then let’s segue directly into me asking you for a favor. It doesn’t involve moving, but it does involve hanging out with me for a while.
Willow: But aren’t you hanging out with Cordelia?
Buffy: I can’t do both?
Willow: Not legally.
Buffy: Look, I really wanna get by here–new school–and… Cordelia’s been really nice… to me… anyway, but, um, I kinda have this burning desire not to flunk all my classes, and I heard a rumor that you were the person to talk to if I wanted to get caught up.
Willow: Oh, I could totally help you out! Uh, if you have sixth period free we could meet in the library?
Buffy: Or not. Or we could meet someplace quieter. Louder. Uh, that place just kinda gives me the wiggins.
Willow: Oh, it has that effect on most kids. I love it, though, it’s a great collection, and the new librarian is really cool.
Buffy: He’s new?
Willow: Yeah, he just started. He was a curator at some British museum, or, or *The* British Museum, I’m not sure. But he knows everything, and he brought all these historical volumes and biographies, and am I the single dullest person alive?
Buffy: Not at all.

Buffy seeks Willow out, both for her expertise in school work, and on a deeper friendship level. This despite Cordelia and later Willow both telling her that Buffy’s stepping onto thin ice by befriending Willow and her friends. A bonus is made as Buffy immediately deflects Willow’s attempts at self deprecation and Willow attempts to defend Buffy and help keep her status in Cordelia’s group by telling Cordelia that Buffy isn’t hanging out with them.

I love this scene. From Buffy’s hand wave to her smile to not putting down Willow, one can really just see the sincere happiness at possibly befriending her that Buffy has towards Willow. On the flipside, Willow flashes a smile and immediately grows concerned at Buffy’s judging her, which Buffy immediately throws to the side.

Buffy: Well, my philosophy, do you wanna hear my philosophy?
Willow: Yeah, I do!
Buffy: Life is short.
Willow: Life is short!
Buffy: Not original, I’ll grant you, but it’s true. You know? Why waste time being all shy and worrying about some guy, and if he’s gonna laugh at you. Seize the moment, ’cause tomorrow you might be dead.
Willow: Oh, that’s nice!
Buffy: Um, I’ll be back in a minute.
Willow: Oh, tha-that’s okay, you don’t have to come back.
Buffy: I’ll be back in a minute.

Buffy yet again seeks Willow out at The Bronze and not only sits next to her but orders a drink, yet again showing an instance where she wants to spend a lot of time with Willow in particular. She again tries to help Willow out by offering her her own philosophy and reassures Willow that she likes spending time with her, despite knowing her for essentially one day.

Another favorite scene of mine and just note the instant smiles that light up both of their faces when they see each other. Just unabashed delight at being in the other’s presence.

Buffy later goes off to kill a vampire almost in direct contradiction that she would only do it as a “now and then” hobby. In large part, her reaction is specifically around the fact that it is Willow that is the target and it’s her advice that led Willow into the situation. Worth noting is that this is the first instance of Buffy’s concerned, worry attitude that she later adopts for situations that involve Angel.

In the second episode, after Willow and Xander are attacked and learn of Buffy’s role as The Slayer, Willow specifically mentions that she wants to help Buffy. This despite the dangers of it being literally life and death in this case. Willow also affirms her decision to Buffy directly in the face of Buffy shooting down Xander’s accompanying her to find Jesse.

Buffy: There’s no ‘we’, okay? I’m the Slayer, and you’re not.
Xander: I knew you’d throw that back in my face.
Buffy: Xander, this is deeply dangerous.
Xander: I’m inadequate. That’s fine. I’m less than a man.
Willow: Buffy, I’m not anxious to go into a dark place full of monsters. But I do want to help. I need to.

Worth noting is that Giles asks for Willow’s assistance in utilizing the computer and Buffy immediately says that she’s leaving, without mentioning anything negative about Willow’s helping out. While Buffy expresses concern over Xander being hurt physically, she is also quick to let Willow get some confidence and use a skillset that only she possesses within the group.

Reason #9: Body language and closeness

The examples go above and beyond just being close to one another in terms of physical space. Quite often whenever they are together alone, they will sit just as close to each other as possible to the point of almost physically touching knees and elbows. In large part they do this despite the fact that there is often no reason to as they are engaging in normal everyday conversation.

As early as episode 3 and 4 of the show we see the closeness of Buffy and Willow physically. Between walking together in the hallways, sitting close to one another outside, and a myriad of places elsewhere the two are practically joined at the hip.

Once again note the extreme closeness despite being the only two seated on the bench. Worth noting is that Xander is standing in front of them with a teacher and neither bothers to even shift apart at all. Also note the mirrored reaction in the second picture, a key point of their relationship that will be explored later.

Willow: He’s gonna come over on Christmas Eve ’cause my parents are out of town. We’re gonna watch videos.
Buffy: That’s good, right? You guys are back.
Willow: It’s good. It’s perfect. In an awkward, uncomfortable sort of way. I just don’t know how to make Oz trust me.
Buffy: Xander has a piece of you that Oz just can’t touch. I guess now it’s just about showing Oz that he comes first.
Willow: I guess. Thanks.

Take note of how close the two are to each other in Season 3’s episode Amends. Willow is even slightly positioned towards Buffy whereas the two chairs opposite them in contrast seem to show more distance. Worth noting is that their closeness transitions into a conversation between the two about Willow’s relationship and attempts to make up with Oz.

This is one of the prime scenes in relation to their closeness, especially from Buffy’s end. After believing Willow was dead, Willow comes into the library much to the joy of Buffy, Xander, and Giles. Only Buffy seems to literally be invading Willow’s personal space throughout the entire scene and seems almost enraptured throughout. Despite coming up with a later idea, Buffy continues to display worry about Willow’s physical safety.

The same episode features another scene where Buffy and Willow are extremely close to one another as the group discusses a situation. Note that Buffy is initially behind Willow, then moves in front of her. Also note their closeness compared to the rest of the group in the final image.

In a late Season 3 episode, Willow has to regale Buffy with her tale of heroics and does so with both seated on the library countertop with maybe an inch or two between them at most. Note that they are entirely locked onto the other and almost unaware of Wesley and Giles feet away.

Reason #8: Willow’s protective of Buffy health wise

This is seen as early as the 3rd episode with Willow’s maternal instincts and concern over Buffy’s health coming into play.

Here we already see a physical instance of Willow tending to Buffy by holding a washcloth to her forehead after nearly fainting in the hallway. Note that Xander is largely hidden in this scene while Giles only expresses concern at the possibility that Buffy could die in a finite time. Neither male figure displays the physical act of caring for Buffy in this scene.

This is more interesting as it comes in Season 2 but is directly after Oz, a future love interest (and somebody whom Willow had just been speaking to), was shot! Willow does not join Oz or stay by his side but instead tends to Buffy’s leg wound and opts to stay with her over Oz. Also note that Willow is the one doing the physical bandaging, this despite both Giles and Kendra already being in the library. Another instance of Willow’s nature to physically take care of Buffy here.

Willow: Her body, yeah. But her soul … her essence … I mean, that could be somewhere else. She could be trapped, in-in some sort of hell dimension like Angel was. Suffering eternal torment, just because she saved us, and I’m not gonna let … I’m not gonna leave her there. It’s Buffy.

Willow’s resurrection of Buffy in Season 6, part of her concern is that Buffy isn’t in heaven but instead in hell. Even in death, Willow displays worry over Buffy’s being harmed or hurt in some manner.

Reason #7: Others notice their closeness.

In Season 4 Riley wants to start a relationship with Buffy in the episode The Initiative. He tries to utilize Willow as a way to get his foot in the door and fully admits that he only knows Buffy likes Willow. This despite Willow being in a relationship with Oz prior and Buffy’s very brief one night stand with Parker.

Riley: Right to the point, ok. I was thinking of asking out Buffy.
Willow: She’s not here.
Riley: I know. See, I don’t know that much about Buffy. But I’m interested in what she likes, and so far, well, the only thing that I know she likes is you.

This coming from a guy who wants to ask out Buffy but no doubt has seen Buffy and Willow constantly around one another in a college setting. Also worth noting is that as soon as Buffy’s original roommate leaves, Willow immediately is the one to replace and move into Buffy’s dorm room.

As early as Season 1’s Prophecy Girl, Xander utilizes Buffy’s friendship with Willow to cover up his nervousness at asking out Buffy for the Spring Fling. This comment is made all the more humorous given Willow is the one who later comes out as a lesbian to Buffy.

Buffy: Xander, you’re one of my best friends. You and Willow…
Xander: Well, Willow’s not looking to date you. Or if she is, she’s playing it pretty close to the chest.
Buffy: I don’t want to spoil the friendship that we have.

Their constant presence together in The Bronze, whether studying or being alone upstairs, is readily apparent throughout the series as well. They are often seen seated at tables, usually in the company of each other with nobody else present. Such situations outside of high school can further imply a possible romantic aspect from other high school students.

From the Season 7 episode Conversations With Dead People, the concept of what other students thought of Buffy is briefly touched on.

Holden: I heard a lot of rumors about you back then. You were all mysterious.
Buffy: I was?
Holden: Well, you were never around. A lot of kids thought you were dating some really old guy, or that you were just heavy religious. Scott Hope said you were gay.

It is interesting that Holden remarks about Buffy’s dating an older guy (see Angel) or being heavily religious (since she wore a cross and had her bag of Slayer tools displayed several times on the floor). Given the concept of “gaydar”, even if Scott purportedly said it about every girl he dumped, there could be enough substance here that others believe him.

In light of Willow’s eventual coming out and the fact that they all still lived in Sunnydale, the later instance of Buffy living in a house with Willow, Tara, and Dawn could have furthered the implication that Buffy was gay. Even in Season 6, Buffy stumbles over her words when questioned by a social worker as opposed to quickly answering with a simple “No” or “I’m not.”

Willow: Buffy, I’m not feeling hot, so uh, I’m gonna take a quick nap, okay?
Buffy: Okay, Will!
Buffy: That’s Willow. She, uh, she kind of lives here too, actually.
Ms. Kroger: Oh, so you live with another woman.
Buffy: Oh! Oh, it’s not a, a gay thing, you know, I mean, well… she’s gay, but, but we don’t … gay. Not that there’s anything…

Even in Season 2’s Innocence, Angelus utilizes the deep friendship that Buffy has towards Willow to bait her. Also it’s worth noting that Angelus was going to start with Willow’s death as the first message. He doesn’t even target Buffy’s mother. It isn’t until Jenny dies that Buffy gets the willpower to kill Angelus.

Angelus: I got a message for Buffy.
Buffy: Why don’t you give it to me yourself?
Angelus: Well, it’s not really the kind of message you tell. It sort of involves finding the bodies of all your friends.
Buffy: This can’t be you.
Angelus: Gee, we already covered that subject.
Buffy: Angel, there must be some part of you inside that still remembers who you are.
Angelus: Dream on, schoolgirl. Your boyfriend is dead. You’re all gonna join him.
Buffy: Leave Willow alone, and deal with me.
Angelus: But she’s so cute and helpless. Really a turn-on.

Reason #6: They push each other hard towards others yet never quite fully commit to the other’s happiness

This becomes such a focal point that one cannot help but wonder just why Buffy and Willow are so willing to push the other into relationships. In Season 1’s Never Kill A Boy on the First Date, Willow is very obvious in her excitement at Buffy and Owen dating. Contrast this to Buffy, the one who’s going on the date, and her reaction. Buffy is deliberately trying to downplay this in the face of Willow’s excitement. Part of the reason is likely because of Angel but considering Buffy had been trying to get Owen the entire episode, one would think she would certainly not be downplaying it at all.

Buffy: It’s not that big a deal. It’s just a bunch of people getting together.
Willow: It’s a very big deal!
Buffy: It’s not!
Willow: It is. Tell her!
Giles: I’m afraid it’s very big.
Willow: Thank you! Wait!

Xander: Look, we gotta get to, uh… Uhhhh. We thought it’d be fun if, uh, we made this a double date!
Buffy: I didn’t know you guys were seeing each other.
Willow: Oh, yeah, well, we knew it would happen eventually, so we figured, hey! Why fight it?
Owen: And you guys are thinking double?
Xander: ‘Cause of… the fun!

Also interesting is that Buffy is pushing very hard for Willow to make the first move in terms of courting Xander yet she offers a dubious expression when presented with such a coupling in the same episode.

Buffy: Will, it’s okay. You don’t have to make him the bad guy.
Willow: But that’s the best friend’s job, vilifying and grousing.
Buffy: Usually, yeah. But he’s right. I mean, I think, maybe in the long run, that he’s right.
Willow: Yeah, I think he is. I mean, I tried to hope for the best, but… I’m sorry. It must be horrible.

As intently as Willow pushes Buffy towards Angel and into his arms, we also see some hints from Willow that she’s not all committed to their relationship and Buffy’s happiness. Willow doesn’t relent on making Angel the bad guy until Buffy admits that the relationship wouldn’t have worked long term. Note Willow’s cutting herself off after saying that she tried to hope for the best.

Willow: You two are so right for each other. Except for the, uh…
Buffy: Vampire thing.
Willow: That doesn’t make him a bad person. Necessarily.
Buffy: I’m brainsick. I can’t have a relationship with him.
Willow: Not during the day, but you could ask him for coffee some night. It’s the non-relationship drink of choice. It’s not a date, it’s a caffeinated beverage. Okay, sure, it’s hot and bitter like a relationship that way, but…

The above was earlier shadowed by Willow in Season 2. She makes a fairly negative comparison to coffee only after Buffy’s admittance that she and Angel can’t and shouldn’t have a relationship.

Buffy: Ampata’s only staying two weeks.
Willow: Yeah. And then Xander can find someone else who’s not me to obsess about. At least with you I knew he didn’t have a shot. Well, you know, I have a choice. I can spend my life waiting for Xander to go out with every other girl in the world until he notices me, or I can just get on with my life.
Buffy: Good for you.
Willow: Well, I didn’t choose yet.

Now compare that scene to the above scene from Season 2, where Buffy tries to gently but firmly push Willow towards making the first move in trying to get Xander to notice her. It is worth noting that Buffy assumes Willow has convinced herself to make a move whereas Willow tells Buffy she hasn’t decided before eventually giving Xander her go ahead to date Ampata.

Buffy: Hey, Will, don’t look, okay, but… No, don’t look! That guy over there is totally checking you out.
Willow: Oh, that’s Oz. He’s expressing computer nerd solidarity.
Buffy: Really? Then why is he on his way over here right now? Told you!

Buffy also pushes Willow towards Oz initially by mentioning that he has been checking her out.

Buffy: Hey, speaking of ‘wow’ potential, there’s Oz over there. What are we thinking, any sparkage?
Willow: He’s nice. Hey, I like his hands.
Buffy: Mm. A fixation on insignificant detail is a definite crush sign.
Willow: Oh, I don’t know, though. I mean, he is a senior.
Buffy: You think he’s too old ’cause he’s a senior? Please. My boyfriend had a bicentennial.
Willow: That’s true. Uh… I guess… I just…
Buffy: You can’t spend the rest of your life waiting for Xander to wake up and smell the hottie. Make a move. Do the talking thing.

Willow later gives confirmation to Buffy that her prodding has had success by mentioning how she likes Oz. Willow eventually asks Oz to Buffy’s birthday party thus starting their relationship.

Willow: Hi, Scott. What are you doing here?
Scott: You told me if I came after 8:00, I could run into Buffy.

Willow also returns the favor with Scott Hope, trying to help Buffy move on to him after Angel.

Willow: Ok, say that I help, and you start a conversation. It goes great. You like Buffy, she likes you. You spend time together, feelings grow deeper, and one day, without even realizing it, you find you’re in love. Time stops, And it feels like the whole world’s made for you two, and you two alone, until the day one of you leaves and rips the still-beating heart from the other, who’s now a broken, hollow, mockery of the human condition.

Willow, partly due to Oz’s recent departure, manages to neatly summarize the Buffy/Riley relationship despite later coaching Riley on how to pick up Buffy.

Willow: It happened right? Did it happen? With Parker?
Buffy: Yeah, it happened.
Willow: Well, and details. I mean not details. I don’t need a diagram. But, you know. Like maybe a blurry watercolor.
Buffy: It was nice. It was really nice. He’s going to call.
Willow: I love this part. Don’t you love this part. Like when it’s all new and everything’s a discovery.

Parker: Just for one night can’t two people who feel an attraction come together and create something wonderful? And then go back to their lives the next day better for it but never over analyzing it or wanting it to be more than it was? I have. She should too.
Willow: People like Buffy a-and me assume that intimacy means friendship and respect. People shouldn’t have to ask first if you’re going to be eyeing other prospects tomorrow.
Parker: People shouldn’t have to preface casual sex with “just so you know I’ll never grow any older with you.” It takes the fire out of it.

Note Willow’s earlier enthusiasm when she learns Buffy and Parker slept together and her later u-turn, including confronting Parker, when he abandons Buffy and stands her up.

Willow: Saw her. Saw her completely.
Buffy: Ouch. Just got a scratch from all that brittle.
Willow: It’s… when I was seeing her, she was seeing someone else. A girl.
Buffy: You mean-
Willow: I mean … not “seeing” seeing. Well, maybe. I don’t know, it was inconclusive, and I didn’t stick around to find out. Might have magicked my fist through a wall or something.
Buffy: Will, I’m sorry.
Willow: I mean, they’re probably just friends. I press my lips against my friends’ all the time.
Buffy: I’m sure they’re just friends. Once you fall for Willow, you stay fallen.
Willow: Thanks, Buffy.

Even as late as Season 6 Buffy tries to reassure Willow that she miscontrued scenes when regarding Tara.

Reason #5: Buffy is inherently touchy feely with Willow especially but also other females

This is a rather interesting thing I noticed much more upon rewatching the series as a whole. Buffy’s character is incredibly touchy feely and far more with female characters than male characters.

Throughout the series Buffy hugs Willow in serious moments and they constantly slide in little moments of physical acts that between a male and female would be considered coupley. Just take note of the following collage of images, in seasonal and episodic order from left to right (e.g. Season 1 through 7).

Note that in all of the images, the two are constantly either linking arms in public places or going so far as to openly hold hands (a gesture that becomes significant with many of the couples on the show including Buffy and Angel as they walk down the street in Amends).

We see this same touchy feelyness with several other female characters in the following image collage.

Also worth noting is that often times when Buffy breaks down or needs a shoulder to cry on, it invariably is Willow’s or at least another female character such as Tara. Willow rarely breaks down in front of Buffy but does so on several occasions.

In Season 3’s Bad Girls, it is Willow’s reveal of jealousy to Buffy that initially forces Buffy to break down and reveal what she and Faith had done.

In Season 3’s The Prom, Buffy again breaks down to Willow upon the fact that Angel has broken up with her. Buffy’s comments in particular are especially intriguing in light of her reaction to finding out Willow’s death in Doppelgangland.

Buffy: I think horrible is still coming. Right now, it’s worse. Right now, I’m just trying to keep from dying.
Willow: Oh, Buffy.
Buffy: I can’t breathe, Will. I feel like I can’t breathe.

Compare that reaction to the one from Doppelgangland… Similar choice of words related to the lack of feeling anything physically.

Buffy: I can’t feel anything. Arms, legs, anything.

Buffy again breaks down to Willow when Willow forces Buffy to accept that it’s just guilt in Season 5. Note that it was only Willow who could possibly have brought Buffy back at that time too. As such, their relationship has now transitioned from an extremely close one socially to one that is equally close mentally.

In Season 4, Willow breaks down in Buffy’s arms after the realization and acceptance that Oz was with Veruca physically.

In Seasons 5 and 6, Buffy breaks down twice but this time it is Tara. The first time is over the possibility of Xander and Ayna breaking up while the second time is again during a reveal from Buffy.

Reason #4: Both make references to the other’s physical features

As early as Season 1 and throughout the series, both girls make comments to each other and others about the way the other girl looks. Note the following examples.

Buffy: (smiles) Wow! You’re a dish! I mean, really.

Buffy picks out the costume for Willow and then, upon seeing Willow wear it, makes a very suggestive comment over how good Willow looks. She even adds the word “really” to emphasize to Willow that she isn’t just saying it to be nice or give Willow confidence.

Willow: Ooo, Scott Hope at eleven o’clock. He likes you. He wanted to ask you out last year, but you weren’t ready then. But I think you’re ready now, or at least in the state of pre-readiness to make conversation, or-or to do that thing with your mouth that boys like.
Willow: Oh! I didn’t mean the *bad* thing with your mouth, I meant that little half-smile thing that you…

So not only does Willow admit to Buffy that she’s observed enough to know Buffy does one mouth thing (that boys seem to like) but does a second thing with her mouth that evidently is bad. Buffy’s reaction of shock, after a positive remark about Buffy’s mouth, causes her to not only stammer over her words but further mention that there’s a bad thing. This all done in the presence of Xander, Oz (Willow’s boyfriend at the time), and Cordelia.

Reason #3: They can read each other without having to say a word

There are several episodes that showcase the ability for Buffy and Willow to sense that something’s wrong with the other without having to immediately come out and say it.

Willow: She’s possessed!
Giles: Possessed?
Willow: That’s the only explanation that makes any sense. I mean, you should’ve seen her last night. That wasn’t Buffy.

From Season 2’s When She Was Bad. Willow offers up that based upon physical observation, she knew it wasn’t Buffy being normal and Willow jumps to another thing controlling Buffy instead of possibly entertaining the idea that Buffy herself has changed.

Reason #2: Willow’s jealousy of Faith and Dislike of those who hurt Buffy emotionally

Buffy: Why am I seeing a look?
Willow: You really *do* need to find the fun, B. Uffy.

Willow is initially on the bandwagon when Faith arrives, thinking she is cool and not showing much negativity towards her as an individual. She even goes so far as to cop Faith’s nickname of Buffy. Also note Willow’s initial support of pushing Faith towards Scott Hope. This in the face of previously trying to push Buffy into his arms.

The jealousy begins to really become more exacerbated as Buffy spends more time with Faith than Willow. Buffy even goes so far as to ditch Willow and join Faith on a patriol.

Willow: I mean, don’t get me wrong. I-I completely understand why you and Faith have been doing the bonding thing. You guys work together. You… You should get along.
Buffy: It’s more complicated than that.
Willow: But, see, it’s that exact thing that-that’s just ticking me off! It’s this whole ‘Slayers only’ attitude. I mean, since when wouldn’t I understand? You, you talk to me about *everything*. I-it’s like all of a sudden I-I’m not cool enough for you because I can’t kill things with my bare hands.

The jealousy comes to a head in the episode Consequences. Willow openly walks off on Buffy and as mentioned earlier we end up with a scene where Buffy breaks down in Willow’s arms. Willow openly says that Buffy and Faith should be getting along for professional reasons (being Slayers) and then basically pushes her own issues with their fading relationship into the open. Also note Willow’s worry that she’s no longer “cool enough” in Buffy’s eyes as a main reason for their deteriorating relationship.

Willow: No way. Some people just don’t have that in them.
Buffy: Look, I’m sorry. I-I know how you hate talking about Faith.
Willow: No, it’s okay.
Buffy: No, really, we should just…
Willow: No. I-it doesn’t bother me. I mean it.
Buffy: Uh, Will?
Willow: Oh.
Buffy: Emotional control?
Willow: I’m working on it.

In the episode Doppelgangland we already see that Willow’s emotional control is swayed heavily when the mention of Faith comes up, given her relationship and effect on Buffy. Willow was easily spinning a pencil in the air but when Faith gets mentioned, the pencil flies off with such force that it embeds itself deeply into a tree. It’s also an example of just how deeply Willow has taken a dislike towards Faith.

Willow: It’s way too late. You know, it didn’t have to be this way. But you made your choice. I know you had a tough life. I know that some people think you had a lot of bad breaks. Well, boo hoo! Poor you. You know, you had a lot more in your life than some people. I mean, you had friends in your life like Buffy. Now you have no one. You were a Slayer and now you’re nothing. You’re just a big selfish, worthless waste.

Willow continues to stand up to Faith and constantly badgers her about just how cool and lucky she is to have Buffy in her life whereas Faith doesn’t anymore.

Willow: They could throw other things.
Buffy: I forgot how much you don’t like Faith.
Willow: After what she’s done to you? Oh, I wish those council guys would let me have an hour alone in the room with her, if I was larger and had grenades.

Even into Season 4, the awareness of Willow’s dislike of Faith is still there and note that Willow specifically mentions it is in large part to what Faith did to Buffy.

Willow: Just so you know? I’m prepared to hate this woman any way you want.
Buffy: Thanks, but no. I don’t wanna seem all petty.
Willow: Well, that’s the beauty! You can’t, but I can. Please. Let me carry the hate for the both of us.
Buffy: Go nuts.

Willow carries the dislike of Riley for most of the episode. She later transfers it onto his wife, Sam, as well going so far as to call her a “bitch” in the process.

Reason #1: They profess their love to one another openly

This becomes an incredibly common theme between our girls throughout the series’ run. The notable examples are all following. Throughout the series, most often the words are used from mother to daughter, sister to sister (Buffy to Dawn), or relationships where the two characters show a true love interest towards one another. Even Willow mentions loving Xander “so much” in Bewitched, Bothered, and Bewildered prior to their affair in Season 3.

Buffy: Hmm, I know you don’t, that’s ’cause you’re my friend. You’re my Xander-shaped friend! Do you have any idea why I love you so, Xander?
Willow: We gotta to get her to a…
Xander: Let her speak!
Buffy: I’ll tell you! You’re not like other boys at all.
Xander: Well…
Buffy: You are totally, and completely one of the girls! I’m that comfy with him.

First though is a mention of Buffy explaining to Xander why she loves him so in Season 1’s The Witch. Note Willow’s wide grin afterwards since Xander pulled the same card on Willow except he compared her to being a guy (and they eventually have a brief affair in Season 3).

Note Buffy’s pleased grin towards Willow when saying the last line and Willow’s glee at the backhanded compliment.

Buffy: Okay, well, there are safer schools. There are safer prisons. I can’t let you stay because of me.
Willow: Actually, this isn’t about you. Although I’m fond, don’t get me wrong, of you. The other night, you know, being captured and all, facing off with Faith. Things just, kind of, got clear. I mean, you’ve been fighting evil here for three years, and I’ve helped some, and now we’re supposed to decide what we want to do with our lives. And I just realized that that’s what I want to do. Fight evil, help people. I mean, I-I think it’s worth doing. And I don’t think you do it because you have to. It’s a good fight, Buffy, and I want in.
Buffy: I kind of love you.
Willow: And, besides, I have a shot at being a bad ass Wiccan, and what better place to learn?

In Season 3, the closeness of the two is further conveyed when Willow opts to attend UC Sunnydale to further her magic abilities mostly but also to be around Buffy. Worth noting is that both girls immediately go to the local Espresso Pump to have Mochas together. This after Buffy also tackled Willow in her glee.

Buffy: I’ll come back as soon as this is finished. I just want you to take it easy, ok? Riley was right. The main thing is put the blame where it belongs. Don’t hurt yourself.
Willow: Uh-huh. Ok.
Buffy: You’re ok?
Willow: I’m fine. I promise.
Buffy: I love you.
In Season 4’s Wild At Heart, Buffy leaves Willow alone but not before saying the above three words. Particularly worthy since it is exactly after Willow comes upon Oz/Veruca being together.
You can absolutely see the sincerity in Buffy’s eyes and the pain she’s also experiencing for Willow.

Buffy: But I want it together. Will, I miss you. And Giles, and Xander. And it is my fault. I’ve been wrapped up in my own stuff, I’ve been a bad friend.
Willow: You’re the Slayer, Buffy. Your stuff is pretty crucial.
Buffy: I mean Riley. And…Riley, mostly.
Willow: Well, I haven’t been Miss Available either. I–I kept secrets. I hid things from everyone.
Buffy: That’s not your fault. Will, you were going through something huge.
Willow: I wanted to tell you, but I was so scared.
Buffy: You can tell me anything. I love you. You’re my best friend.
Willow: Me, too. I love you too.

In another Season 4 episode, Buffy and Willow both lament not being available enough to the other, apologize and blame themselves, then promptly share I Love You’s and hug. This scene totally has the imagery of two lovers making up after a quarrel.

Willow: Love you so much.
Buffy: I know.

Even in Season 5’s The Body, the only profession of love is from Willow towards Buffy, in consolation. This is not even going into their constant touching and declarations of ILY (more so from Buffy to Willow) in Season 8, considered canon by Joss himself.

Overall Thoughts
I hope there was enjoyment and an understanding of why I appreciate and support Buffy and Willow as a slash pairing and why they are my O(ne)T(rue)P(air) on the show. I could have gone deeper in some of the factors but felt this was long enough as it was.