Did the Zone Blitz Really Help Kill the Run & Shoot?

July 12, 2009 at 12:37 PM · Filed under Pro Football ·Tagged , ,

Dick Lebeau is most famous as being the defensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers from 1995-1996 and 2004-Present. He also came up with the Zone Blitz in part to counter what Detroit, Houston, and Atlanta were doing with the Run & Shoot Offense. The Zone Blitz is largely credited with partly being the reason why the offense as a base use was driven out of the NFL but is there any proof? I’ve decided to take a look at the game logs from 1989-1991 when LeBeau was defensive coordinator for Cincinnati and 1995-1996 when he was defensive coordinator for Pittsburgh.

Successes
1989 Cincinnati @ Houston: Warren Moon was 17 of 33 for 198 yards and 1 TD vs. 1 INT. I’d call this a success for the zone blitz, although Hoston won 26-24.
1989 Detroit @ Cincinnati: Bob Gagliano and Rodney Peete combined to go 13 of 27 for 171 yards and 0 TD vs. 2 INT.
1989 Houston @ Cincinnati: Warren Moon and Cody Carlson combined to go 16 of 34 for 181 yards and 0 TD vs. 3 INT.
1990 Houston @ Cincinnati: Warren Moon went 25 of 48 for 288 yards and 1 TD vs. 1 INT. Cody Carlson went 1 of 6 for 12 yards and 0 TD vs. 1 INT.
1990 Houston @ Cincinnati (Playoffs): Cody Carlson went 16 of 33 for 165 yards and 2 TD vs. 1 INT.

Failures
1990 Cincinnati @ Houston: Warren Moon went 21 of 33 for 369 yards and 5 TD vs. 1 INT. Cody Carlson came in and was 3 of 7 for 32 yards with 0 TD vs. 0 INT.
1990 Cincinnati @ Atlanta: Chris Miller went 13 of 18 for 124 yards and 2 TD vs. 0 INT.
1991 Houston @ Cincinnati: Warren Moon went 22 of 37 for 315 yards and 1 TD vs. 1 INT.
1991 Cincinnati @ Houston: Warren Moon went 24 of 37 for 289 yards and 3 TD vs. 2 INT. Cody Carlson came in and went 4 of 7 for 92 yards and 1 TD vs. 0 INT.
1996 Pittsburgh @ Atlanta: Bobby Hebert went 24 of 36 for 234 yards and 2 TD vs. 1 INT. Although Pittsburgh won 20-17, Hebert had a good game.

As is the case when looking back, Dick LeBeau and his Zone Blitz scheme had its share of successes but also had a fair bit of failures as well when going up against the Run & Shoot Offense. The key statistic when measuring defense is of course how the team did in the win/loss column. Here’s how Dick’s teams did: 5-5 for a .500 record overall.

So while the Zone Blitz had some impact and may have slowed down the Run & Shoot Offense at times, it’s clear looking back that it wasn’t as shut down as many pundits and media members seem to remember it being.

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5 Guys to Watch In the 2009 NFL Preseason

July 12, 2009 at 11:57 AM · Filed under Pro Football

The NFL preseason is full of undrafted free agents and players low on the depth chart trying to impress the coaches enough with their ability on the field, whether it be through their assigned role or special teams, to be a part of the 53 man roster come opening day of the regular season. Here’s a list of players to keep an eye on during the games.

Miami Dolphins – RB Lex Hilliard out of Montana. He’s listed at 5′11 240 and will likely try to make the team as a FB behind Lousaka Polite. His competition will be FB Chris Brown out of the University of Tennessee who’s listed at 6′0 250.

Minnesota Vikings – RB Ian Johnson out of Boise State. The Vikings currently have 3 FB and 5 RB on their roster. Johnson will have to beat out the likes of fellow rookie Kahlil Bell and Albert Young to have a shot at claiming the 3rd RB spot on the depth chart.

New York Giants – WR Micah Rucker out of Eastern Illinois was picked up by the Steelers last year as a UDFA. He has great size at 6′6 221 but has tough competition to make a roster spot. He’ll likely have to beat out Taye Biddle, Shaun Bodiford, and Derek Hagan to have an outside chance at claiming the 7th spot on the Giants WR depth chart, if they carry that many. The one upside is his size, but WR Ramses Barden out of Cal Poly is a mirror image of Rucker.

Philadelphia Eagles – WR Danny Amendola out of Texas Tech was on the Cowboys preseason roster last year but struggled with fumbles. Has the potential to be a Wes Welker clone but like Rucker, has a lot of competition in the form of Brandon Gibson, Shaheer McBride, Brandon Robinson, and Marcus Thigpen for a chance at claiming the 7th spot on the WR depth chart. Again, it depends on if the Eagles will carry that many.

San Francisco 49ers – RB Kory Sheets out of Purdue offers versatility as a receiving RB as well. The 49ers currently have 2 FB and 6 RB on their roster. Sheets will likely have to beat out FB sized Zak Keasey, Thomas Clayton, and fellow rookie RB Glen Coffee out of Alabama for the 3rd RB spot.

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What To Expect From Matt Cassel in Kansas City?

May 11, 2009 at 1:25 PM · Filed under Pro Football ·Tagged , , ,

Last season, Matt Cassel emerged when Tom Brady went down for the New England Patriots. On the season, Cassel threw for 3,693 yards and 21 TD vs. 11 INT. Impressive numbers for a backup in the system for 4 seasons at that point in time but if you dig a little deeper, Chiefs fans should be excited.

Matt Cassel: 156/233 (67.0%) for 1566 yards and 7 TD vs. 7 INT with 30 Sacks
Matt Cassel: 171/283 (60.4%) for 2127 yards and 14 TD vs. 4 INT with 17 Sacks

The first line is Cassel’s numbers from week one to week nine. The second line is his numbers from week ten to week seventeen. While his completion percentage dropped, all of his other numbers greatly improved as he got more familiar with the system and working within it. He increased his yard per attempt from a low 6.72 to an impressive 7.52. He also increased the passes that he threw for TDs from 4.49% up to 8.19% despite completing only 15 more passes than he did in the first half.

He also greatly cut down on the interceptions from 3.00% to an incredible 1.41%. The biggest improvement, however, was his ability to read the defense and get rid of the ball quickly. He dropped his sack per attempt from every 8 pass attempts to every 17 pass attempts, almost a full half of a game.

This also allowed for him to complete the ball farther down field as he improved from 10.04 yards per completion to 12.44, almost two more yards in the second half. Just an increase of five completions would add another first down’s worth (ten) in yard difference between the first half and the second half.

Another bonus was Matt’s ability to recognize an opening and scramble when necessary. He improved with four games over ten yards in the first half to seven games over ten yards in the second half. This allowed him to make smarter decisions by scrambling for four to five yards as opposed to forcing a throw and risking an interception.

Football Outsiders ranked the quarterbacks in 2008. While Matt Cassel’s passing was pedestrian in DYAR at 17th and DVOA at 20th, his scrambling more than made up for it where he ranked 3rd in DYAR and 9th in DVOA.

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Re-Selecting the Vezina Trophy Winners

March 24, 2009 at 10:55 AM · Filed under Hockey ·Tagged

With the Vezina Trophy looking like it’ll be decided between Tim Thomas, Steve Mason, and Niklas Backstrom with Martin Brodeur and Pekka Rinne on the outside looking in, I thought it would be interesting to re-select the Vezina Winners from 1970 to the present. The Vezina Trophy is given out to the best Goalie of the Year in the NHL each season.

1970-1971: Tony Esposito went 35-14-6 with a 2.27 GAA.
1971-1972: Ken Dryden went 39-8-15 with a 2.24 GAA.
1972-1973: Ken Dryden went 33-7-13 with a 2.26 GAA.
1973-1974: Bernie Parent went 47-13-12 with a 1.89 GAA and 12 SO.
1974-1975: Bernie Parent went 44-14-10 with a 2.03 GAA and 12 SO.
1975-1976: Ken Dryden 42-10-8 with a 2.03 GAA and 8 SO.
1976-1977: Ken Dryden went 41-6-8 with a 2.14 GAA and 8 SO.
1977-1978: Ken Dryden went 37-7-7 with a 2.05 GAA and 5 SO.
1978-1979: Ken Dryden went 30-10-7 with a 2.30 GAA.
1979-1980: Dennis Herron went 25-3-3 with a 2.51 GAA.
1980-1981: Richard Sevigny went 20-4-3 with a 2.40 GAA and 2 SO.
1981-1982: Billy Smith went 32-9-4 with a 2.97 GAA.
1982-1983: Pete Peeters went 40-11-9 with a 2.36 GAA and 8 SO.
1983-1984: Tom Barrasso went 26-12-3 with a 2.84 GAA and 2 SO.
1984-1985: Pelle Lindbergh went 40-17-7 with a 3.02 GAA and 2 SO.
1985-1986: Bob Froese went 31-10-3 with a 2.55 GAA and 5 SO.
1986-1987: Ron Hextall went 37-21-6 with a 3.00 GAA and 1 SO.
1987-1988: Brian Hayward went 22-10-4 with a 2.86 GAA and 2 SO.
1988-1989: Patrick Roy went 33-5-6 with a 2.47 GAA and 4 SO.
1989-1990: Patrick Roy went 31-16-5 with a 2.53 GAA and 3 SO.
1990-1991: Ed Belfour went 43-19-7 with a 2.47 GAA and 4 SO.
1991-1992: Patrick Roy went 36-22-8 with a 2.36 GAA and 5 SO.
1992-1993: Ed Belfour went 41-18-11 with a 2.59 GAA and 7 SO.
1993-1994: Dominik Hasek went 30-20-6 with a 1.95 GAA and 7 SO.
1994-1995: Dominik Hasek went 19-14-7 with a 2.11 GAA and 5 SO.
1995-1996: Chris Osgood went 39-6-5 with a 2.17 GAA and 5 SO.
1996-1997: Martin Brodeur went 37-14-13 with a 1.88 GAA and 10 SO.
1997-1998: Ed Belfour went 37-12-10 with a 1.88 GAA and 9 SO.
1998-1999: Dominik Hasek went 30-18-14 with a 1.87 GAA and 9 SO.
1999-2000: Roman Turek went 42-15-9 with a 1.95 GAA and 7 SO.
2000-2001: Roman Cechmanek went 35-15-6 with a 2.01 GAA and 10 SO.
2001-2002: Patrick Roy went 32-23-8 with a 1.94 GAA and 9 SO.
2002-2003: Marty Turco went 31-10-10 with a 1.72 GAA and 7 SO.
2003-2004: Marty Turco went 37-21-13 with a 1.98 GAA and 9 SO.
2005-2006: Miika Kiprusoff went 42-20-11 with a 2.07 GAA and 10 SO.
2006-2007: Dominik Hasek went 38-11-6 with a 2.05 GAA and 8 SO.
2007-2008: Jean-Sebastien Giguere went 35-17-6 with a 2.12 GAA and 4 SO.

It’s interesting to note that in my selections, Martin Brodeur only won 1 Vezina Trophy while Patrick Roy took home 4, Dominik Hasek took home 4, and even Ed Belfour won 3. Ken Dryden led everybody with 6 Vezina Trophies.

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Adam Dunn: Beast

March 10, 2009 at 12:02 PM · Filed under Baseball ·Tagged , , ,

Tom Verducci wrote the following quote.

One of the real standouts in the Team USA lineup, and even in the clubhouse, has been Adam Dunn. Being around some of the best players in the game in an intense environment seems to be bringing out the best in a guy who found little interest on the free-agent market and seems to confound many people in baseball. He is an on-base machine with massive power, but also is a career .225 hitter with runners in scoring position (.247 overall) who at times can seem to be operating at cruising speed. “I go through a lot of valleys,” is how Dunn described the inconsistent nature of his game.

I’ve heard announcers starting to warm up to Dunn, despite the high number of strikeouts and low batting average because they know he has power and can get on base.

Dunn signed a 2 year deal with Washington for a reported $20 Million, a steal considering his numbers.

2006 ($07.5 Million): Hit .234/.365/.490 with 40 HR and 112 BB vs. 194 K
2007 ($10.5 Million): Hit .264/.386/.554 with 40 HR and 101 BB vs. 165 K (Had 7 more hits but 29 fewer K)
2008 ($13.0 Million): Hit .236/.386/.513 with 40 HR and 122 BB vs. 164 K (Walked 21 more times)

He’s hit exactly 40 HR in 4 straight years and flashed speed on the base paths with 22 SB in 27 SBA (81.5%). The guy could easily hit 40 HR and steal 10 SB if given the opportunity.

Every media member loves Ryan Howard, despite the strikeouts, and yet the last 2 years he has rivaled Dunn.
2007 ($900 K): Hit .268/.392/.584 with 47 HR and 107 BB vs. 199 K
2008 ($10.0 Million): Hit .251/.339/.543 with 48 HR and 81 BB vs. 199 K.

For everybody who dislikes Adam Dunn, he’s a much better on base threat than Ryan Howard with a similar amount of power. Not to mention he’s a better threat to steal than Howard, who has 2 SB in his career. Also of note, Howard strikes out far more than Dunn ever has in his career (Dunn has topped 170 only 3 times in his career).

Richie Sexson was essentially Ryan Howard, just without the ultra favorable hitter’s ballpark. At his peak, Sexson was good for a .270 BA, .360 OBP, and .540 SLG with 40+ HR and 80+ BB vs. 160+ K. Richie’s best seasons in 2001 and 2003 with 45 HR came in a ballpark that scored a 101 and 99 park factor for hitters. Compare that to Ryan Howard whose park factors over the past three years was 105, 104, and 102.

To put those into context, here’s Coors Field over the past 3 years: 107, 109, and 105.

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Second Half Breakout Improved Start?

March 10, 2009 at 11:36 AM · Filed under Baseball ·Tagged , ,

Doug Miller’s article takes a look at several players including Shin-Soo Choo, Chris Dickerson, and Felipe Lopez and their hot second halves.

Needless to say, small sample size is extremely legit reason to suspect that these guys won’t quite follow up their torrid “second halves” with a hot season.

But very quietly, stars of the future were putting it all together.
Shin Soo Choo
Dig deeper and you’ll see that he primarily got hot in two months, August and September. In 194 PA he hit 0.359 with 10 HR, 41 RBI, and 20 BB vs. 38 K.

Felipe Lopez
Like Choo, he had a hot August and insane September/October (.414/.443/.596 line). In only 169 PA he hit .385 with 4 HR, 21 RBI, and 11 BB vs. 28 K.

Alexei Ramirez
Had a poor 2nd half and in September/October he hit .211/.286/.411 in 105 PA. His hot months were June and July where he hit .348 with 7 HR and 31 RBI. He really shouldn’t be included in this list but he was a young player, had a good August, and apparently Doug Miller can overlook that.

Chris Dickerson
Only had 122 PA but he hit .304/.413/.608 with 6 HR, 15 RBI, and 17 BB vs. 35 K.

Of course, I can easily play this game with players who had solid but not great season totals as well.
A.J. Pierzynski: Over July and August he hit .287 with 7 HR, 24 RBI, and 5 BB vs. 29 K in 188 PA but had a poor September. Seemed a lot like Alexei Ramirez.

Nick Swisher: Over July and August he hit a miserable .208 but still had 11 HR, 28 RBI, and 28 BB vs. 49 K. Outside of the BA, he showed power and plate patience and should have a better season just for those two factors alone.

Hunter Pence: Over August and September/October he hit .259 with 11 HR, 30 RBI, and 18 BB vs. 44 K in 210 PA.

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Cubs: Balanced Lineup

March 9, 2009 at 12:04 PM · Filed under Baseball ·Tagged , , , ,

Key to WS is a balanced lineup according to Jerry Crasnick’s writeup on the Chicago Cubs.

Five months after a painful loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series, Piniella is brimming with ideas on how to remedy the team’s 0-6 postseason record in 2007 and 2008. He’s already vowing to rest his regulars more frequently as an antidote to those long, debilitating summers at Wrigley Field.

Game 1: Dodgers walked 8 times, Cubs walked 2 times. Cubs threw 43 more pitches.
Game 2: Dodgers walked 3 times, Cubs walked 2 times. Cubs threw 16 more pitches.
Game 3: Dodgers walked 3 times, Cubs walked 2 times. Cubs threw 11 fewer pitches.
Total: Dodgers walked 14 times, Cubs walked 6 times. Cubs threw 48 more pitches than the Dodgers.

“Our club won 97 ballgames last year and played awfully well,” Piniella said. “But when you get into the playoffs and guys can pitch, they can throw breaking balls when they’re behind in the count. They can pitch to the outside part of the plate. They get comfortable. We played the Dodgers last year, and we didn’t see one pitch by a lefty. Nothing. That says a lot.”

Yup. The Cubs won the most games in a season since 1945 but got killed by RHP. The Cubs walking 6 times vs. 24 strikeouts had nothing to do with it.

If you find the timing of the team’s latest mini-remake perplexing, join the club. The Cubs ranked second in the majors to Texas with 855 runs scored last season. Among National League teams, Chicago ranked second behind St. Louis with a .796 OPS against right-handed pitching and trailed only Florida with 145 home runs against righties.

So why is this suddenly a priority?

The one-word answer: October.

October makes people morons, trying to find that one quick fix that cures all ills for a team that struggles in the playoffs.

Piniella and the Cubs’ front office are convinced the team’s lack of balance had become a major impediment in the postseason, when exhaustive scouting reports and preparation tend to magnify weaknesses.

Your team averaged 1 BB every 17 AB in 2008. In 2007, they averaged 1 BB every 7 AB and scored 6 runs in all 3 games because the hitters didn’t make contact. 2007 OPS: .562 and 2008 OPS: .628.

In comparison, your opponents walked 14 in 104 AB and 13 in 94 AB. The Diamondbacks hit .266 as a team but still scored 16 runs over 3 games because they had an OPS of .890. The Dodgers hit .250 as a team but still scored 20 runs over 3 games because they had an OPS of .767.

“We’ve been so right-handed that when a pitcher gets in a groove, he can pitch to one side of the plate and really not have to mix it up,” Lee said. “Guys start working the outside corner and throwing that slider off the plate, and they never have to go to a different pitch to get a lefty out. I’m not a pitcher, but I would think it would be a little easier that way.”

vs. RHP in 2008 as a team: .274/.350/.443 in 4688 PA
vs. LHP in 2008 as a team: .288/.366/.442 in 1696 PA

They hit BETTER against LHP with a much higher .339 BABIP compared to .314 against RHP. Could partly be the reason why they didn’t face any LHP.

Switch-hitter Koyie Hill and lefty bat Paul Bako are competing for the backup job behind Soto, and Miles will give Theriot periodic breathers at short.

The Cubs’ fifth outfielder probably will be Joey Gathright, a lefty slap hitter whose strengths are his speed and ability to cover ground in the gaps.

Koyie Hill: Career .538 OPS
Paul Bako: Career .622 OPS
Joey Gathright: Career .632 OPS

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Tim Lincecum: New Drug

March 6, 2009 at 1:39 PM · Filed under Baseball ·Tagged , , ,

Scott Ostler put up an intriguing (to say the least… and not in a good way) article.

The old drug was Barry Bonds.

The new drug is Tim Lincecum.

The new drug has way fewer scary side effects. The side effects of the old drug included mood swings (from grumpy to surly), forgetfulness (“Why am I in my street clothes? I forgot you might need me to pinch-hit.”) and national scorn and ridicule.

The old drug still hit 54 HR in 707 AB while walking 247 times in 2006 and 2007 at age 41 and 42.

Giants fans weren’t so much fans as they were co-dependents. Enablers. San Francisco became a joke. Bonds’ fans, employers and teammates were viewed as apologists for, and worshipers of, a fraud.

Winning 76, 71, and 72 games were probably a larger reason for being a joke aside from Bonds.

Your old drug had the people skills of a cobra. Bonds redefined condescension. Your new drug flunked out of superstar school. Lincecum doesn’t seem to own a sneer.

And still had OPS’ of 1.008 and 1.045 despite hitting for a .270ish average. I’ll take that production over off field sneers and anti-people skills.

It might take awhile for the nation’s sports fans to join San Francisco in appreciating Lincecum. We’ve burned ‘em before. Consider the last several baseball heroes the Bay Area has foisted on the world – Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada and Bonds.

Winning games could help too. You don’t see much scorn aimed at the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim after all. You also gave us Rickey Henderson and Dennis Eckersley so it hasn’t all been bad.

The good news is that the Giants whiffed on Manny Ramirez. Had they signed Manny and won, it would have been business as usual – San Francisco led by a giant Giant of questionable character.

Yup… and a guy who hit .396/.489/.743 over in Los Angeles for the Dodgers.

The bad news is that the Giants whiffed on Manny Ramirez, so America doesn’t have to start hating us again. And Lincecum, if he wins just 10 games for this team, will be a front-runner for the Cy Young Award again.

Apathy is clearly better and name me one Cy Young winner who won 10 games who wasn’t a reliever or closer. The reason he won the Cy Young was because he went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA where the league average was 4.38.

They are considered a possible division contender. Name one other possible contender in baseball whose main pitching and offensive weapons are a skinny kid pitcher who doesn’t ice his arm, and a portly young hitter (Pablo Sandoval) with no real position, questionable hitting habits, and 145 big-league at-bats.

Named a contender by who? They still have to fight off the Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks first. And having two weapons isn’t a good thing (although Fred Lewis and Randy Winn are solid). Sandoval lucked out with a .340 BA last year, which he surely won’t repeat and averaging 1 BB every 36 AB isn’t a good sign.

Until San Francisco can average over 4 runs a game, I don’t think anybody will take them seriously as a division threat.

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March 4, 2009 at 11:59 AM · Filed under Baseball ·Tagged , , ,

Nomar Garciaparra: Lefty Hammer of Balance

This report crediting to Buster Olney and AP pointed out that Nomar signed with the Oakland Athletics.

Oakland’s interest in him is presumably to help the A’s balance their lineup: The right-handed-hitting Garciaparra hammered lefties last season, going 19-for-56, with four homers and a 1.067 OPS.

2008 vs. LHP: .339/.424/.643 with 9 BB vs. 5 K in 56 AB
2007 vs. LHP: .213/.282/.330 with 9 BB vs. 7 K in 94 AB
2006 vs. LHP: .341/.420/.600 with 11 BB vs. 8 K in 85 AB

Over 3 Seasons: 29 BB vs. 20 K in 235 AB (1 BB per 8 AB, 1 K per 12 AB). I guess Oakland hopes they don’t get the 2007 Nomar.

The Athletics are heavy in left-handed hitters, with left fielder Jack Cust, designated hitter Jason Giambi, first baseman Daric Barton and third baseman Eric Chavez, among others.

LH Hitters: Jack Cust, Jason Giambi, Daric Barton, Eric Chavez, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck (6)
RH Hitters: Kurt Suzuki, Mark Ellis, Bobby Crosby, Nomar Garciaparra, Orlando Cabrera, Matt Holliday (6)

Huh. I guess Nomar really does help Oakland get a perfect balance.

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March 4, 2009 at 10:42 AM · Filed under Baseball ·Tagged , ,

Bigger Ballparks Means More Running

Jeff Pearlman wrote an article about spring training and got the following worthy quotation.

Why aren’t teams running like they used to?

“Ballparks are way too small,” he says. “Built for power.”

Teams are not only running as much as in the past, but they’re getting much smarter about being successful. Last year, the NL teams ran 2029 times and were successful 73% of the time. The AL ran 1805 times but were successful 73.0% of the time as well. There were 7 teams in all of MLB that stole over 120 SB.

While only 9 players stole over 40 bases on the year, players were much smarter overall. Grady Sizemore stole 38 of 43, Jayson Werth stole 20 of 21, Dustin Pedroia stole 20 of 21, and Michael Young stole only 10 bases but wasn’t thrown out once. So while there may not be that one guy who steals 80-90 bases, teams are spreading it out so that three or four players can maximize on 20 chances as opposed to one guy trying to maximize on 100 chances.

1966: Averaged 119 SBA per team
1967: Averaged 116 SBA per team
2007: Averaged 131 SBA per team
2008: Averaged 128 SBA per team

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