The Pass vs. The Run and Wins In the NFL

A thought popped into my head when thinking about the fact that teams winning a ballgame will “run out” the clock with a heavy run game because they want to ensure the victory. I noticed the Patriots are very well known for going with short passes, even with an underrated run game, and started wondering how a winning record correlates to pass to run ratio.

NFL Year	Teams W/Winning Record	Teams W/Greater Pass Ratio	Teams W/Greater Run Ratio
2008	16	10	6
2007	13	9	4
2006	12	8	4
2005	17	8	9
2004	13	5	7
2003	14	8	6
2002	16	13	3
7	101	61	39

It’s interesting to note that after the extremity of 2002, the ratios slowly balanced back to favor the run until 2005 when the ratio shifted back to the passing game (in part due to the great teams having guys like Brady, Manning, Brees, etc.) Also the number of teams with winning records tends to consistently be between 12-16 teams over the past 7 years and the 2009 season should be within that window as well.

Is the 4 Wide “Spread” Formation Becoming More Common In the NFL?

Many fans and members of the media have seen how the “Spread” offense has taken college football and high school football by storm, an offshoot of the classic run-and-shoot formation from the mid 80’s to mid 1990’s.

Has that translated to the NFL? I decided to take a look at the percent of pass plays attributed to certain QBs who snap the ball in a 4 or 5 WR formation, the consensus “formation” of pass focused spread offenses. Names are in “order” of NFL team (i.e. Rodgers – Green Bay listed before Brady – New England).

Kurt Warner: 4 WR formation ran 47% of the time. Closest team to a “run-and-shoot”/”spread” style offense in the NFL formation wise.
Matt Ryan: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Joe Flacco: 4 WR formation ran 17% of the time.
Trent Edwards: 4 WR formation ran 10% of the time.
Jake Delhomme: 4 WR formation ran 26% of the time.
Jay Cutler: 4 WR formation ran 9% of the time.
Carson Palmer: 4 WR formation ran 20% of the time.
Aaron Rodgers: 4 WR formation ran 20% of the time.
Tony Romo: 4 WR formation ran 10% of the time.
Kyle Orton: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Matthew Stafford: 4 WR formation ran 3% of the time.
Matt Schaub: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Peyton Manning: 4 WR formation ran 11% of the time.
David Garrard: 4 WR formation ran 9% of the time.
Matt Cassel: 4 WR formation ran 17% of the time.
Chad Henne: 4 WR formation ran 11% of the time.
Brett Favre: 4 WR formation ran 12% of the time.
Tom Brady: 4 WR formation ran 22% of the time.
Drew Brees: 4 WR formation ran 14% of the time.
Eli Manning: 4 WR formation ran 11% of the time.
Mark Sanchez: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
JaMarcus Russell: 4 WR formation ran 5% of the time.
Donovan McNabb: 4 WR formation ran 12% of the time.
Ben Roethlisberger: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Philip Rivers: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Alex Smith: 4 WR formation ran 16% of the time.
Matt Hasselbeck: 4 WR formation ran 17% of the time.
Josh Freeman: 4 WR formation ran 3% of the time.
Marc Bulger: 4 WR formation ran 7% of the time.
Vince Young: 4 WR formation ran 9% of the time.
Jason Campbell: 4 WR formation ran 14% of the time.

Interesting that for a majority of teams, the “acceptable” range seems to be around 14-16% of all pass plays being 4 or 5 WR sets. Eye opening is the Colts but they run their 3 WR set over 70% of their pass plays so it arguably balances out.

Note that most of the conservative, defensive minded coaches have extremely low percentages: Jim Schwartz in Detroit, Raheem Morris in TB, Jeff Fisher in Tennessee, Steve Spagnuolo in St. Louis, Tom Cable in Oakland, and Dick Jauron (fired on 11/17) in Buffalo.

Worth mentioning is Tom Brady and Kurt Warner, both well known for their aerial games, also have two of the higher (and in Warner’s case, the highest) percentages in terms of 4 and 5 WR sets.

Turnovers and Effect on Wins In the NFL

Everybody knows that in order to win games, the team that commits fewer turnovers wins the game by a rather large percentage. Here’s how the best regular season teams of the last 5 years have done with turnover differential.

2008 Season (10 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
13-3 Tennessee Titans: +14
12-4 Indianapolis Colts: +9
12-4 Pittsburgh Steelers: +4 (Won Super Bowl)
12-4 Carolina Panthers: +6
12-4 New York Giants: +9
11-5 Baltimore Ravens: +13
11-5 New England Patriots: +1
11-5 Miami Dolphins: +17
11-5 Atlanta Falcons: -3
10-6 Minnesota Vikings: -6

2007 Season (11 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
16-0 New England Patriots: +16
13-3 Indianapolis Colts: +18
13-3 Dallas Cowboys: +5
13-3 Green Bay Packers: +4
11-5 San Diego Chargers: +24
11-5 Jacksonville Jaguars: +9
10-6 Seattle Seahawks: +10
10-6 Pittsburgh Steelers: +3
10-6 Tennessee Titans: +0
10-6 Cleveland Browns: -2
10-6 New York Giants: -9 (Won Super Bowl)

2006 Season (8 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
14-2 San Diego Chargers: +13
13-3 Baltimore Ravens: +17
13-3 Chicago Bears: +8
12-4 New England Patriots: +8
12-4 Indianapolis Colts: +7 (Won Super Bowl)
10-6 Philadelphia Eagles: +5
10-6 New York Jets: +0
10-6 New Orleans Saints: -4

2005 Season (13 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
14-2 Indianapolis Colts: +12
13-3 Denver Broncos: +20
13-3 Seattle Seahawks: +10
12-4 Jacksonville Jaguars: +11
11-5 Cincinnati Bengals: +24
11-5 Carolina Panthers: +16
11-5 New York Giants: +12
11-5 Pittsburgh Steelers: +7 (Won Super Bowl)
11-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +7
11-5 Chicago Bears: +6
10-6 Kansas City Chiefs: +8
10-6 Washington Redskins: +1
10-6 New England Patriots: -6

2004 Season (9 Teams at 10-6 or Better)
15-1 Pittsburgh Steelers: +11
14-2 New England Patriots: +9 (Won Super Bowl)
13-3 Philadelphia Eagles: +6
12-4 Indianapolis Colts: +19
12-4 San Diego Chargers: +15
11-5 Atlanta Falcons: +2
10-6 New York Jets: +17
10-6 Denver Broncos: -9
10-6 Green Bay Packers: -14

Out of the 51 teams that finished with a record of 10-6 or better, only 8 teams (16%) had a negative turnover differential. Only 1 team, the 2008 Atlanta Falcons, finished with a record better than 10-6. There were 20 teams (39%) that had a positive turnover differential in double digits. Only 2 of those teams finished with a record lower than 11-5, the 2004 New York Jets and the 2007 Seattle Seahawks.

The 5 teams that won the Super Bowl had a combined +18 with the 2007 New York Giants being the only SB champion with a TO differential lower than +4.

Worth noting is how the worst teams of the past 5 years have fared…
2006 Oakland Raiders 2-14: -23
2004 San Francisco 49ers 2-14: -19
2008 Detroit Lions 0-16: -9
2005 Houston Texans 2-14: -8
2007 Miami Dolphins 1-15: -7
2008 Kansas City Chiefs 2-14: +5

They combined for a TO differential of -61 with only the 2008 KC Chiefs posting a positive differential. Worth pointing out is that KC lost 7 games by a TD or less, including 2 games by 1 point, both against the San Diego Chargers.

What does that mean for the 2009 NFL Season that’s through Week 9?

8-0 New Orleans Saints: +8
8-0 Indianapolis Colts: +7
7-1 Minnesota Vikings: +5
6-2 New England Patriots: +8
6-2 Denver Broncos: +5
6-2 Cincinnati Bengals: +2
6-2 Dallas Cowboys: +0
6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers: -2
5-3 Philadelphia Eagles: +11
5-3 Atlanta Falcons: +4
5-3 San Diego Chargers: +1
5-3 Arizona Cardinals: -6

Currently it looks like the Arizona Cardinals will be lucky to finish better than 10-6. The Eagles, if they can keep up the TO differential, look to finish with a great record while most of the teams sitting at 6-2 or better look like they all have a good shot at making the playoffs.